Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1210 PM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Broad MVFR and localized LIFR ceilings continue to impact airport
terminals east of the Central Mountain Chain. Limited improvement is
forecast this afternoon, especially where precipitation occurs. 18Z
TAFS may be a tad aggressive on lifting ceiling heights. Will monitor
trends and amend as required.

Showers and thunderstorms are impacting the northern mountains and
eastern plains of NM. Another crop of showers/storms will increase
in coverage this afternoon, particularly across the central portions
of the state, progressing east-northeast. These storms could result
in heavy rainfall and low ceilings/visibilities. In addition, hail
and gusty winds cannot be ruled out in the more intense activity.

Primary forecast challenge after 06z is whether low ceilings will
develop/linger in the Rio Grande Valley. GFS solution clears out the
region quicker than NAM, but will indicate BKN060 in TAFs for now.
Meanwhile, confidence is a little higher that MVFR or IFR ceilings
will impact the region east of the Central Mountain Chain. For now,
added SCT placeholders in these terminals, but the next shift may
need to convert to BKN/OVC. -DPorter

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
An unseasonably moist air mass will remain in place across New Mexico
today through this evening, as low level southerly flow will
persist. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across
central and northern New Mexico today and this evening. A few
thunderstorms could become severe, producing hail and strong winds.
Thunderstorms will end in western New Mexico after midnight, while
isolated activity will continue across central and eastern New
Mexico. A Pacific cold front will cross the region on Friday,
bringing much drier air and cooler temperatures. Saturday and Sunday
will feature clear to mostly clear skies with temperatures returning
back to near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Precipitable water values continue to be unusually high for early
October across NM. Precipitable water values range from approximately
1.4 to 1.7 inches over southern and eastern NM. In the region
extending from northeast NM to central NM to west central NM, values
range from 1.0 to 1.4 inches, and north central and northwest NM
values range from 0.5 to 1.0 inches. The 00Z KABQ sounding showed
some drier air below 700 millibars, but ample moisture between 700
millibars and 500 millibars, and a precipitable water value of 1.01
inches. With so much atmospheric moisture available and models in
good agreement in showing weak jet maxima moving over the region,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and this evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing 1 to 2
inches per hour, and the flash flood watch for much of central and
eastern NM remains in effect through midnight MDT. Adequate
instability with lifted indices near minus 4 degrees C and CAPE
values greater than 1000 J/kg will crate a risk for severe
thunderstorms across the norther half of NM, excluding only the far
western portions of the state.

A dry Pacific cold front will move across NM Friday, and any rainfall
is expected to develop to the east of NM in west TX. Winds will
become light late Friday night into Saturday morning under clear
skies. Low temperatures are expected to fall below the freezing mark
in the Upper Rio Grande valley and west of the divide in west central
NM. Zonal flow aloft Saturday and Sunday will bring continued dry
weather to the region with highs near normal. Models are in good
agreement that a strong backdoor cold front will move across eastern
NM to the central mountains on Monday, knocking highs in eastern NM
down to 8 to 14 degrees below normal. Mainly dry and cooler than
normal weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with sub-freezing
temperatures covering a larger area in northern and western NM Monday
night and Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...Moist conditions with showers and thunderstorms through
tonight followed by much drier and windy weather Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will persist
over much of northern and central New Mexico today and tonight
before drier and windy weather scours out much of the moisture on
Friday.  A few strong to severe storms with large hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible today and tonight over a large portion of
northern and central New Mexico. Cell motion will be to the
northeast.

The majority of showers and storms today and tonight will be focused
from the Continental Divide eastward, as the low level flow will
begin to shift to south and southwesterly, allowing for some drying
in far northwest New Mexico. Highs today will be close to average
for early October. Areas of fair to poor vent rates will be found
over the north and east with good to excellent rates along and west
of the Contdvd.

West to northwest winds will begin to strengthen tonight over the
northern high terrain, then spread area wide Friday. Daytime
humidities will be significantly lower and showers and storms will
relegated to the southeast third or so of the forecast area.  Gusts
to around 45 or 50 mph are possible mainly over the north central
higher terrain and the northeast highlands/plains. Vent rates will
be excellent Friday. Despite the windy and drier conditions, only
some very localized critical conditions are forecast Friday
afternoon west of the Contdvd.

Friday night humidities and temperatures will be significantly
lower/cooler as gusty northwest to north winds diminish. Dry
conditions and lighter winds are expected Saturday. Ventilation will
be greatly reduced Saturday with widespread poor rates forecast.
Sunday will also be dry with several degrees of warming. Poor vent
rates persist Sunday over portions of the north.

A stronger front will impact the eastern plains and central mt chain
Monday. The front will push into the RGV Monday night. The GFS and
ECMWF do have their differences with the ECMWF faster initially
bringing the front into northeast New Mexico. They both agree on a
much stronger trough/upper low swinging into the central
Rockies/Great Basin at the same time, suggesting there could be
another round of precipitation at least for the north and parts of
the east Mon-Wed. Thereafter, the GFS still insists on a slug of
moisture rotating into the state from the south but the ECMWF
remains dry. High temperatures by Tuesday look to be about 5 to
nearly 20 degrees below average although lows will be within a few
degrees of normal.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
NMZ507-511>515-517>540.

&&

46

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
355 AM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017

NMZ501>540-061200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
355 AM MDT Thu Oct 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flash flood watch is in effect for much of central and eastern New
Mexico for today through midnight tonight. Areas in eastern New
Mexico are especially at risk for flash flooding due to the heavy
rainfall across portions of the area over the past 2 days. There will
also be a threat of severe thunderstorm activity for most of the
northern half of the state, excluding the far west, this afternoon
and evening. The primary threats in any severe thunderstorm will be
large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are
possible Friday over the far eastern plains. Friday afternoon west to
northwest winds in the north central and northeast highlands may gust
as high as 45 to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather, flooding and
rainfall amounts through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web
site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also
submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter
using the hashtag nmwx.

28

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1024 AM MDT THU OCT 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             2 NW RIBERA             35.39N 105.47W
10/04/2017  M0.75 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702225

RJOJOLA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
135 PM MDT THU OCT 5 2017

NMZ508-052000-
Southwest Mountains-
135 PM MDT THU OCT 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MDT...

At 134 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northeast of National Radio Astronomy Observatory, or 21 miles
east of Datil, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail, winds in excess of 40 mph and heavy rainfall will
be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Socorro County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3445 10733 3444 10731 3442 10731 3442 10730
      3441 10728 3419 10715 3413 10750 3422 10759
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 245DEG 14KT 3421 10747

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
153 PM MDT THU OCT 5 2017

NMZ504-052030-
Northwest Highlands-
153 PM MDT THU OCT 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 152 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles south of Pueblo Pintado, or 25 miles east of Crownpoint, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail, winds in excess of 40 mph, and heavy rainfall will
be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pueblo Pintado.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 10726 3561 10768 3568 10779 3602 10755
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 220DEG 28KT 3569 10769

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
211 PM MDT THU OCT 5 2017

NMZ507-508-520-052045-
Southwest Mountains-West Central Highlands-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
211 PM MDT THU OCT 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MDT...

At 210 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Magdalena, or 23 miles northwest of Socorro, moving
east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph, and heavy rainfall will
be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Socorro County.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 10731 3426 10734 3443 10700 3413 10696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 264DEG 18KT 3422 10726

DPorter