Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1205 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017

.UPDATE...
First CG lightning strikes of the day detected over the higher
terrain of central Rio Arriba County evidence of perhaps weak upper-
level forcing associated with belt of 50-55kts at 300mb near/just
north of the NM/CO line. Meanwhile, widespread low clouds to steadily erode
east of the central mountain chain next hour or two where the air
mass expected to become even more unstable than Monday especially
the northeast quarter. SPC included a slight risk for severe across the
far northeast, and cannot rule out at least isolated strong/severe
storms anywhere from the east slopes of the central mountains to high
plains of EC/NE. Longer-lived and better organized activity should
focus across the northeast quarter owing to better 0-6km shear. We've
increased the coverage of NMRS thunderstorms and boosted QPF across
NE zones a bit and raised PoP for EC areas. Otherwise, previous
forecast on track.  KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1147 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR to IFR low cigs and patchy -RA/DZ slow to break up across
eastern NM early this afternoon including KTCC. Gradual improvement
will occur through 21Z. The next round of -SHRA/TSRA will develop
over the central high terrain aft 18Z then expand eastward into the
eastern plains thru the evening. Models are hinting another complex
of SHRA/TSRA will move southeast through the plains tonight with
heavy rainfall and more MVFR to IFR cigs. Have prevailing -RA in
KLVS starting at 0Z and KTCC starting at 6Z and lasting for a few
hours.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon storms will form off the central mountain chain today,
moving the east with only an isolated chance for storms over the Rio
Grande Valley. Highs will be near 10 degrees below average across
the east today. Storm coverage trends down Wednesday with drier flow
aloft moving over NM with temperatures rebounding back to normal.
Storms trend up by late week and into the weekend as the upper highs
shifts east over Texas, allowing for a better tap into monsoon
moisture.

24

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The backdoor front pushed through the central mtn chain this evening
making it to just east of the continental divide. Increased moisture
behind the front, and further progression to the west as alloted a
mention of isold PoPs over the central RGV Tuesday afternoon/evening.
Storms will likely form along the central mtn chain, moving east
onto the plains later in the afternoon/evening. Daytime highs will be
near avg west, and near 10F below normal for the eastern plains. An
unstable atmosphere with LI's -3 to -6, and the NAM12 showing sfc
based CAPE 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for the potential for isolated
severe storms to develop over the NE plains Tuesday. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible with the stronger storms, but storm motion
should be quick enough to limit any flash flooding threat.

The upper high remains planted roughly over El Paso and southern NM
Wednesday. Drier air wrapping around the northern periphery of the
high with westerly flow aloft will limit storm activity Wednesday.
Any storm activity will favor the SW mtns, Sacramento's, and Sangre's
near the CO border. Storms are possible over the far NE as well
where a backdoor front associated with another shortwave trough over
E Colorado will again allow for the potential for storms over Union
and Colfax counties.

The upper high begins to shift east Thursday and into the weekend.
This will allow for a stronger monsoonal surge of moisture into AZ
and western NM by the end of the week. Subsequent rounds of backdoor
fronts replenishing moisture Thursday evening and Friday evening will
help increase storm coverage over the east late in the week and
weekend. Long range model solutions disagree on how many of these
backdoor fronts arrive across the east. However, both long range
model solutions show the upper high further east over TX, with an
upper trough digging into the Pacific NW. This flow pattern will
favor a healthy monsoonal surge into NM this weekend, providing
plenty of fuel for storm activity. Daytime highs trend up back to
normal areawide starting Wednesday, with below normal temperatures by
the weekend with the expected increased cloud coverage.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large mid and upper level dry intrusion sliding over NM on
unseasonably strong westerlies has shut down the majority of
convective activity across western NM. Low levels are still quite
moist across the region, particularly over eastern NM. A moderate
gap wind overnight forced deeper low level moisture west to the
Continental Divide. Overall, not much change is expected to the
pattern the past couple days. Expect scattered to numerous showers
and storms with locally heavy rainfall across eastern NM through
Thursday, while the west sees mainly isolated coverage. Vent rates
with the stronger winds aloft will be good in most areas. Minimum
humidity values over western NM will average 15-20% today and
Wednesday before moisture begins seeping north from Mexico Thursday.
Overnight recoveries will however still be very good to excellent
all areas.

Changes are still advertised Thursday as a back door cold frontal
boundary enters eastern NM and the center of upper level high
pressure shifts east into TX. This will allow a large mass of deep
layer moisture pooling over the Baja region to advance northward
ahead of a developing trough along the west coast on Friday. The
period from Friday to Tuesday may become very wet over the entire
region with increasing potential for flash flooding. A second upper
high center attempts to redevelop over NM during this period and
essentially weakens steering flow aloft. Needless to say vent rates
deteriorate to poor/fair all areas with light winds. Temps will
trend below normal with high humidity.

Extended model guidance is trending toward the upper high center
staying focused over NM through next week. This will allow for
strong moisture recycling with daily rounds of showers and storms,
slow storm motions, and locally heavy rainfall. Vent rates would
remain in the poor to fair range with temps below normal all areas.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
357 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017

NMZ501>540-091100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
357 AM MDT Tue Aug 8 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over the northeast
plains, including Colfax and Union counties. Storms will be capable
of producing large hail, strong downburst winds, frequent lightning,
and locally heavy rainfall. There is a slight risk for flash
flooding over eastern New Mexico where locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over the far
northeast plains Thursday. Storms will be capable of producing large
hail, strong downburst winds, frequent lightning, and flash
flooding.

A more significant moisture surge will produce a large coverage of
storms over NM Friday and through the weekend. This pattern will
enhance the possibility for locally heavy rainfall and the risk for
flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1258 PM MDT TUE AUG 8 2017

NMZ517-518-081930-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
1258 PM MDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RIO ARRIBA AND
NORTHWESTERN SANTA FE COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MDT...

At 1258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Santa Clara Pueblo, or near Espanola, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Espanola, Pojoaque, Santa Clara Pueblo, Nambe Pueblo, Sombrillo,
Santa Cruz, Pojoaque Pueblo, Cuyamungue, San Ildefonso Pueblo and El
Rancho.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 10604 3591 10624 3601 10616 3597 10591
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 294DEG 14KT 3593 10615

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
153 PM MDT TUE AUG 8 2017

NMZ523-524-539-082030-
Eastern Lincoln County-South Central Highlands-Central Highlands-
153 PM MDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHEASTERN
TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 152 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Corona, moving south at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rural areas just east of Corona and also rural areas south southwest
of Duran.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3413 10564 3440 10564 3448 10539 3424 10528
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 348DEG 5KT 3429 10553

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
231 PM MDT TUE AUG 8 2017

NMZ523-533-082100-
Guadalupe County-Central Highlands-
231 PM MDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GUADALUPE AND
SOUTHEASTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM MDT...

At 230 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Encino, or 18 miles west of Vaughn, moving southeast
at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Duran and surrounding rural locales.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

To report severe weather, contact the National Weather Service office
in Albuquerque at 1.888.386.7637.

&&

LAT...LON 3454 10562 3461 10551 3450 10522 3433 10553
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 307DEG 12KT 3453 10552

Shoemake

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
318 PM MDT TUE AUG 8 2017

NMZ539-082145-
Eastern Lincoln County-
318 PM MDT TUE AUG 8 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MDT...

At 318 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles northeast of Jicarilla, or 20 miles southeast of Corona, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Lincoln County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3400 10552 3407 10538 3395 10516 3381 10544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 313DEG 7KT 3399 10542

Shoemake