Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1154 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Easterly upslope flow will persist across the eastern plains today
with areas of MVFR conditions in low clouds continuing through 21z
far eastern plains including KCAO and KCVN, then returning late this
evening and overnight across most of the eastern highlands and plains.
Another crop of SCT to NMRS thunderstorms will favor the central
mountain chain eastward this afternoon and evening, while mostly dry
in the west. SCT to ISOLD convection should linger in the east well
into the late night hours. Thunderstorm outflows will push through
gaps in the central mountain chain this evening with a gusty east
canyon wind below canyons opening into the central valley that will
linger into the late night hours. An Aviation Weather Warning may be
needed for the ABQ Sunport.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture in place across eastern NM will continue to provide
fuel for strong thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall through the
remainder of the work week. Meanwhile, drier air over western NM will
result in just isolated showers and storms through Thursday. Upper
level high pressure will slide east into TX Friday and allow deeper
moisture to surge north from Mexico. This reinforcing moisture along
with a back door front entering eastern NM will increase the chances
for more widespread showers and storms this weekend. Temperatures
over the area will average near to slightly below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The latest GOES-16 layered water vapor products confirm a much drier
airmass above 500mb has surged eastward across NM. The 00Z KABQ RAOB
depicts deep layer westerlies over NM while GOES high density winds
shows nearly 50kt near 300mb entering the Four Corners. This is not
characteristic of an early August monsoon pattern. Nonetheless,
abundant moisture in the low levels across eastern NM and a back
door frontal boundary washed out across the area is focusing showers
and storms with locally heavy rainfall. Gap winds have sloshed
moisture westward into the Rio Grande Valley where a few isolated
showers have developed early this morning. This overall pattern will
remain in place through about Thursday. WPC still shows a slight
risk for excessive rainfall across far eastern NM today and Tuesday.
There is also a marginal risk for severe storms today over parts of
southeastern NM and on Tuesday over far northeastern NM.

Potential significant changes are still advertised beyond Thursday.
This will be a complex scenario for models to analyze so confidence
at this time is quite low. 00Z model guidance is still hinting that
an upper low currently over northern CA will be forced northeast by
an approaching large scale upper trough over the Pac NW. This will
allow 700-500mb layer flow to become more south/southwest over NM
and shunt the H5 ridge eastward into TX. Meanwhile, a large complex
of tropical moisture currently pooling off the west coast of MX is
advected northward into NM Friday. A secondary H5 high center then
attempts to develop over NM over the weekend and deep moisture is
trapped beneath the ridge. On top of all this another back door
frontal boundary is progged to enter eastern NM Saturday night. So,
as noted above this is a complex scenario but it is looking more
promising that moisture will return to all areas by the weekend.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A mid-level ridge will continue to build slowly northward over the
NM/AZ border from a high pressure center over northwest Mexico
today. This will cause drying to continue across western NM, with
another downtick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
However, moist easterly upslope flow in the wake of yesterday's back
door cold front will persist in the east.  Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms that form over the central mountain chain
this afternoon are forecast to move east and southeastward across
the plains through tonight. Thunderstorm outflows are expected to
push through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east
canyon wind (gusts 20-40 mph) this evening into the late tonight
hours.

Tuesday through Wednesday, the mid-level high pressure system over
northwest Mexico is forecast to strengthen some as it gradually
migrates northward over the NM/AZ border. A persistent moist, low-
level south and southeasterly return flow over eastern areas will
enable scattered to isolated afternoon and evening showers and
storms to continue to form over the central mountain chain and
plains, though there will be a downtick in coverage Wednesday.
Another gusty and moist back door cold front will push southward
through the plains Wednesday night. The center of high pressure
aloft is forecast to move far enough northward along the western NM
border by Thursday to allow moisture to seep northward over western
areas again with increasing thunderstorm chances.

Friday into the coming weekend the mid-level high is forecast to
migrate southeastward over TX while extending a ridge axis westward
along the US/Mexico border. This will cause humidities to continue
to trend upward in the west, though not until Saturday in the east.
A more typical monsoon thunderstorm pattern is expected over western
and north central areas, and enough northwest flow aloft should be
in place to keep the plains convectively active as well. Overall,
this coming weekend looks wetter than this week will be.

Otherwise, near and below normal high temperatures are expected
today and Tuesday, when highs may drop as low as 14 degrees below
normal across parts of the east. Highs should climb under the ridge
Wednesday, before generally cooler readings during the latter half
of the week. Haines Indices should generally vary around 3, except
for increasing coverage of 5's mainly across the west today and
Tuesday. Haines may reach 6 in parts of the NW on Wednesday as 5's
spread eastward over central areas. The 5's should then migrate
northward near the CO border during the latter half of the week as
moisture increases from the south. Areas of poor ventilation are
forecast along the east slopes of the central mountain chain and
northeast today, then across the far eastern plains on Tuesday, and
the northeast corner on Wednesday. Pockets of poor ventilation may
begin to develop in the west again starting Thursday, before
spreading to more of the forecast area this weekend.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
352 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2017

NMZ501>540-081100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
352 AM MDT Mon Aug 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms today in the area
from Clines Corners to Santa Rosa southward to Ruidoso and Roswell.
Storms will be capable of large hail and severe downburst winds.
There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over most of eastern NM
as well with potential for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday
There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Tuesday over Colfax
and Union counties. Storms will be capable of large hail and severe
downburst winds. There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over
most of eastern NM Tuesday with potential for locally heavy rainfall
and flash flooding.

A more significant moisture surge will attempt to impact a larger
area of NM Friday through Sunday. This pattern will enhance the
potential for torrential rainfall and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GUYER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
113 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2017

NMZ529-532-533-071945-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-Northeast Highlands-
113 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SAN MIGUEL AND
NORTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM MDT...

At 113 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tecolote, or 15 miles south of Las Vegas, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm along with heavy rain.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dilia, Anton Chico, Tecolote, Los Montoyas, Chapelle and Tecolotito.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 327 and 337.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 10543 3550 10530 3536 10491 3512 10507
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 299DEG 20KT 3538 10528

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
131 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2017

NMZ539-072000-
Eastern Lincoln County-
131 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MDT...

At 131 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Corona, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Lincoln County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3404 10544 3422 10544 3426 10499 3399 10500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 270DEG 24KT 3414 10536

40

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
216 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2017

NMZ526-539-072045-
Eastern Lincoln County-South Central Mountains-
216 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MDT...

At 215 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Jicarilla, or 26 miles south of Corona, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Encinoso.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3390 10558 3400 10540 3375 10512 3358 10551
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 336DEG 21KT 3389 10544

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
217 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2017

NMZ523-533-539-072045-
Eastern Lincoln County-Guadalupe County-Central Highlands-
217 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LINCOLN...SOUTHWESTERN
GUADALUPE AND EAST CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 217 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Vaughn, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm along with heavy rain.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Lincoln...
southwestern Guadalupe and east central Torrance Counties.

This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 188 and 201.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 10539 3459 10530 3450 10494 3425 10513
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 294DEG 16KT 3448 10527