Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
238 PM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor cold front will lead to an uptrend in storm coverage and
intensity east of the Central Mountain Chain today and especially
Monday evening when locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding are
possible. More specifically, the East Central and Southeast Plains
will be in for a round of heavy rain producing storms Monday evening
overnight into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure
with build over New Mexico going into mid week, with a downtrend in
daily rounds of storms and an uptrend in temperatures. Look for an
uptrend in storms toward the end of the week and into next weekend as
monsoonal moisture surges back over the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another relative down day in terms of storm coverage/intensity so far,
except that a backdoor front across eastern New Mexico will likely
lead to a convective uptrend over the next several hours. The latest
LAPS convective analysis shows sbCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/Kg and
LIs of -5 to -7C behind the front where surface dewpoint temperatures
are in the low to mid 60s. Latest KFDX VAD wind profile shows decent
directional shear in the lower atmosphere, so given the instability
we're expecting some strong to potentially low-end severe storms
late this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere this afternoon/evening,
garden variety storms are expected with little wetting rain (i.e. >=
0.10").

Monday is looking more interesting in terms of severe and flash flood
potential across the Eastern Plains behind the backdoor front. The
12z GFS and NAM shows significant QPF Monday afternoon and overnight
across the East Central and Southeast Plains, possibly as far west as
the highlands. Both models show PWATs increasing to near 2.0" in the
Pecos River Valley south of Santa Rosa Monday evening, with
relatively slow storm motion. For now, added a mention of locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Eastern Plains, but later shifts
will need to look closer at the need for a flash flood watch for
Monday night.

Going into mid week, the upper high south of New Mexico will build
over the state, leading to a convective downtrend with PWATs going
below normal and temperatures trending back to near/above normal.
Look for PWATs and storms to trend back up toward the end of the work
week and into the weekend as the upper high shifts back south or
southeast of New Mexico and another backdoor front helps to recharge
moisture over the state. The 12z GFS, in particular, is painting a
very wet picture for next weekend.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Daily rounds of afternoon convection and monsoonal moisture will
continue through the forecast period. This will fire weather
concerns fairly low over most of the region. Through Wednesday, the
bulk of the convection will remain over the eastern half of the as
the ridge axis recenters along the AZ/NM border. This will produce a
drying trend over the western half of the state with daytime RH
values lowering into the 20-30 percent range west of the Central
Mountains. The driest day is expected to be Wednesday with minimum
RH values in the 15-20 percent range over west central New Mexico.
Overnight recoveries during this time will remain excellent with
values over 65 percent. Haines values will also peak on Wednesday
with values of 4-5 over most of western NM with an area of 6 near
the Four Corners region. Winds will remain 10 mph or less over most
of the forecast area through mid-week.

By Thursday, the ridge axis will shift back eastward, allowing for
showers and thunderstorms to return to the west and diminish
slightly over the east. Minimum RH values will respond accordingly
with minimums in the 25-35 percent rage with excellent recoveries.

54/Fontenot

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  59  89  61  90 /  20  10   0   5
Dulce...........................  52  83  53  83 /  50  30  10  20
Cuba............................  56  83  55  83 /  40  20  10  20
Gallup..........................  54  86  52  87 /  10   5   0   0
El Morro........................  51  83  51  84 /  10   5   0   5
Grants..........................  52  86  53  87 /  10   5   5   5
Quemado.........................  55  84  56  85 /  10   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  61  91  62  91 /  10   5   0   0
Chama...........................  48  75  49  76 /  60  40  20  20
Los Alamos......................  58  79  58  80 /  50  40  30  20
Pecos...........................  55  78  57  79 /  60  30  50  20
Cerro/Questa....................  52  76  51  77 /  70  60  30  30
Red River.......................  46  68  47  69 /  70  60  40  30
Angel Fire......................  45  71  46  73 /  70  60  60  30
Taos............................  53  79  51  81 /  60  40  40  20
Mora............................  51  73  52  75 /  70  60  60  30
Espanola........................  59  84  60  85 /  40  30  20  20
Santa Fe........................  58  83  60  82 /  50  20  30  20
Santa Fe Airport................  56  85  58  86 /  30  20  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  88  64  89 /  20   5  20  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  89  66  90 /  20   5  10   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  91  63  92 /  20   5  10   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  89  65  90 /  20   5  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  62  92  63  92 /  20   5  10   5
Rio Rancho......................  66  89  64  90 /  20   5  10  10
Socorro.........................  67  92  65  93 /  20   5  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  83  56  84 /  30  10  30  20
Tijeras.........................  60  85  58  85 /  20  10  30  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  85  57  86 /  20  20  30  10
Clines Corners..................  55  80  56  81 /  30  30  50  20
Gran Quivira....................  60  84  58  84 /  20  20  20  10
Carrizozo.......................  61  87  61  86 /  10  10  20  20
Ruidoso.........................  58  79  56  79 /  20  40  50  30
Capulin.........................  54  72  54  74 /  70  60  60  40
Raton...........................  54  75  54  79 /  60  60  60  40
Springer........................  55  77  56  80 /  60  60  60  30
Las Vegas.......................  53  76  52  78 /  60  60  60  30
Clayton.........................  61  75  58  77 /  60  50  60  30
Roy.............................  59  76  57  76 /  70  60  60  30
Conchas.........................  65  83  62  84 /  60  40  50  20
Santa Rosa......................  63  82  61  83 /  60  30  60  20
Tucumcari.......................  65  83  63  85 /  60  40  50  20
Clovis..........................  66  81  62  81 /  60  50  50  20
Portales........................  67  82  63  82 /  60  40  60  20
Fort Sumner.....................  67  84  63  83 /  50  30  60  20
Roswell.........................  68  89  65  86 /  30  30  60  20
Picacho.........................  65  83  61  81 /  30  40  60  40
Elk.............................  62  81  59  79 /  20  50  60  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
338 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017

NMZ501>540-071100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
338 AM MDT Sun Aug 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will impact
eastern NM today and tonight. There is also a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains where large hail and
strong downburst winds are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Heavy rainfall is expected Monday through Thursday along and east of
the central mountain chain, where localized areas of flash flooding
may occur. The most susceptible areas will be within steep terrain
and where heavy rainfall has saturated soils over the past week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

Guyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
248 PM MDT SUN AUG 6 2017

NMZ536-062115-
Roosevelt County-
248 PM MDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ROOSEVELT COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 247 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elida, or 20 miles southwest of Portales. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elida.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 10356 3395 10384 3398 10384 3411 10371
      3405 10351
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 023DEG 3KT 3403 10365

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
402 PM MDT SUN AUG 6 2017

NMZ536-538-062230-
Roosevelt County-Chaves County Plains-
402 PM MDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT AND
NORTHEASTERN CHAVES COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 400 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Elida, or 22 miles west of Portales, moving south
at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible
with this storm along with heavy rain. A second strong storm was
located just south of Elida and was also moving south.

Locations impacted include...
Elida and Kenna.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3418 10385 3419 10363 3377 10345 3379 10388
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 356DEG 16KT 3411 10374

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
410 PM MDT SUN AUG 6 2017

NMZ534-537-062245-
Quay County-De Baca County-
410 PM MDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DE BACA AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUAY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 409 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Sumner Lake State Park, or 11 miles north of Fort
Sumner, moving south at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm along with heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Sumner.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 10427 3468 10407 3446 10411 3455 10441
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 020DEG 6KT 3464 10420

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
422 PM MDT SUN AUG 6 2017

NMZ534-536-537-062245-
Roosevelt County-Quay County-De Baca County-
422 PM MDT SUN AUG 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT...EAST
CENTRAL DE BACA AND SOUTHWESTERN QUAY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 421 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of House, or 13 miles northeast of Fort Sumner,
moving south to southwest at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm along with heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Taiban.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 10400 3456 10390 3435 10410 3453 10430
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 056DEG 17KT 3459 10404