Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1159 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

Drier air continues to work into New Mexico, and this will limit
thunderstorm coverage further. Still some modest mid level moisture
could lead to a few high-based showers or storms producing very
little rainfall with very gusty downburst winds. This activity would
be most likely over the southwestern mountains of New Mexico and
perhaps just along the central mountain chain. Farther east into the
plains closer to Oklahoma/Texas, a few better-organized storms will
be possible with downpours temporarily reducing ceilings/visibility
along with the potential for hail and gusty downburst winds. This
activity in the east should remain very sparse and isolated in
nature. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with light to moderate
breezes.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
The upper high will build northward during the week. Storm activity
will initially be on the lighter side and favor southern and eastern
areas through Tuesday. Temperatures will gradually warm early this
week. Moisture values will rise starting on Wednesday and last into
the weekend. The added moisture will fuel an expansion of showers and
thunderstorms favoring western and central areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Just some cosmetic changes to the gridded forecast. Forecast trends
remain the same...initial drier scenario impacting western areas
through Tuesday. Hit and miss storms across the east and south.
Models continue to show a cluster of storms developing across NE
areas Tue afternoon and trending south/eastward during the overnight
hours. Drier storms today although a marginal risk of severe based on
latest SPC outlook across the far east.

An overall moistening trend is expected as the upper high builds
northward over the greater Four Corners region Wednesday through the
weekend. Thunderstorm coverage will increase and tend to favor
western and central areas based on the steering flow and a mid level
dry intrusion. The GFS and ECMWF have a little different depiction of
the dry intrusion. Decided to go with the more bullish GFS in terms
of storm coverage. Either way...eastern areas look to be on the drier
and warmer side during this period.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A few light showers persist early this morning over the eastern half
of the state as a surface/outflow continued to sag south and
westward over the eastern plains. Drier air as depicted in the
current satellite imagery, is expected to progress into the west and
central during the day today, with the best shot for spotty wetting
rainfall over the southwest, Sangre de Cristo and south central
mountains as well as portions of the northeast highlands and eastern
plains. High temperatures today will be within a few degrees of
average. High Haines will be widespread over the region with
excellent vent rates. Minimum humidities will trend downward with
single digit humidities over the Northwest Plateau and portions of
the west central and Rio Grande Valley. Cell motion will be mostly
to the east and southeast today and may trend more north to south
tonight. Poor overnight humidity recovery tonight portions of the
northwest, west central and Rio Grande Valley.

The upper high center will continue to slowly shift west and then
northward this week, with the center of circulation near the Four
Corners on Wednesday. Single digit minimum humidities will again
develop for many areas along the Rio Grande Valley westward Tuesday.
It now appears as if the moisture slosh may resume a day or so
earlier, with convection over the northeast strengthening as it
moves into the east central Tuesday evening. An east to west low
level gradient develops Tuesday night, shoving a moist east wind
into the Rio Grande Valley. Despite the slosh, poor overnight
humidity recoveries will continue west of the RGV Tuesday night.

Cell motion will transition to a northeast to southwest direction
Wednesday and persist through the end of the work week. Humidities
will slowly increase day by day. Chances for wetting thunderstorm
rains become focused over the central mt chain and over the western
mountains Thursday through Friday. Mixing heights to decrease
somewhat, as will vent rates, but they remain at least good for the
majority of the forecast area. The higher Haines values will retreat
and be confined to the northwest third to half of the forecast area.
High temperatures will remain a few degrees of normal.

The upper high center may shift to our northeast by mid July,
allowing deeper moisture to seep into the circulation and impacting
at least portions of New Mexico.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
444 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017

NMZ501>540-041100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
444 AM MDT Mon Jul 3 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the eastern
third of the plains this afternoon to early evening. Strong downdraft
winds and large hail will be associated with some of the storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A cluster of strong storms is expected to develop Tuesday afternoon
across the northeast third and eventually impact the east central and
southeast plains during the overnight hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required across the eastern third this
afternoon to early evening due to isolated severe storms.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
149 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2017

NMZ531-032015-
Harding County-
149 PM MDT MON JUL 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HARDING COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM MDT...

At 149 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Mosquero, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Harding County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3574 10389 3591 10380 3582 10340 3557 10353
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 292DEG 20KT 3580 10377

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