Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1200 PM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

Thunderstorm coverage is expected to be notably less over northern
and central New Mexico today. Storms in the western half of the
state will tend to be drier, producing little actual rainfall but
very gusty downburst winds. Storms along and east of the central
mountain chain will be capable of turning stronger with heavy
downpours, hail, and severe wind gusts. Storms should largely
dissipate into the evening, but a stray cell or two might survive
beyond midnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with high
density altitudes posing risks due to the hotter temperatures.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
The atmosphere will dry some the next few days. The net effect will
be less thunderstorm coverage as well as smaller footprints of
heavier rain. Temperatures will gradually warm and generally be near
to a few degrees above normal. The atmosphere will undergo a gradual
moistening trend starting midweek and extend through the rest of the
week. Based on the steering flow for the storms eastern areas are
likely to be favored through Tuesday. Western and central areas will
be favored the latter half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of changes needed to the gridded forecast. Forecast theme
remains the same...gradual downturn in convection and wetting rain
footprints the next few days as drier air entrains over the area from
the Great Basin. Gradual uptick in convection expected by midweek
and last through the rest of the week. Models continue to hint
towards western and central areas being favored and this is largely
due to the steering flow and potential mid level dry intrusion across
the east. Models are pretty similar with their depiction of the
upper air pattern the next several days.

A strong and significant high pressure area aloft will migrate
northward as the week progresses. This will allow an easterly flow to
develop and ultimately moisten the atmosphere, especially western
areas. A capping inversion with a dry intrusion aloft should
develop over the east by late next week thus limiting convection
there.

Decided to add a couple of degrees to the max highs at Farmington and
four corners areas due to the close proximity to the upper high. Main
impact would be Tuesday through Thursday. Otherwise...went with a
blended model approach for temps.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms lingering early this morning over portions
of the eastern plains and generally moving to the east and
southeast. Convection anticipated to be most active over the eastern
plains, northeast highlands and southwest mountains later today and
as with the current activity, should continue to move to the east
and southeast. High temperatures will be within a few degrees of
normal and high Haines will be common along with excellent vent
rates.

Drier air noted on satellite imagery to our west, and models
indicate most of the existing deeper moisture over the forecast area
will slowly shift to the east, and to the east of the state by late
Monday, while moisture may increase somewhat over portions of the
southwest mountains. The upper high center near El Paso will migrate
north and westward this week, until it is centered north of the Four
Corners Wednesday through Friday. Early this week, the moisture
slosh across the east and into the RGV will diminish, with a
reduction in convection and wetting rain chances, but with potential
for dry storms west and central. Little change in high temperatures
Monday and Tuesday, as minimum humidities decrease and poor
overnight recoveries return to the west and portions of the RGV.
Vent rates remain mostly excellent Monday but diminish Tuesday. High
Haines will continue to be widespread both days.

As the upper high center settles into it's new home over the Great
Basin/central Rockies mid to late week, the moisture slosh into
eastern and central NM will resume. Cell motion will change, from
northeast or east to southwest and west, as chances for wetting rain
become focused over the central mt chain and over the western
mountains Wednesday through Friday. Mixing heights to decrease
somewhat, as will vent rates, but they remain at least good for the
majority of the forecast area. The higher Haines values will retreat
and be confined to the northwest third to half of the forecast area.
High temperatures will remain a few degrees of normal.

The upper high may linger to our north through mid July, so deep
monsoon moisture looks to be cut off for all except, perhaps
portions of the southwest mountains where the upper circulation
would be more favorable for more plentiful moisture. Eventually,
some of that more plentiful moisture may circulate around the upper
high, depending where the center wobbles.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
459 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017

NMZ501>540-031100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
459 AM MDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the eastern
third this afternoon and evening due to strong microburst winds and
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Far eastern portions of the plains, near the Texas border could
experience an isolated severe storm on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required between 2 pm to 10 pm MDT due to
isolated severe storms across the eastern third.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1209 PM MDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             2 NNW LAS VEGAS         35.62N 105.23W
07/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   COCORAHS

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702100

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1238 PM MDT SUN JUL 02 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     HAIL             RUIDOSO                 33.33N 105.68W
07/01/2017  E0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

0310 PM     HAIL             VERMEJO PARK            36.88N 105.00W
07/01/2017  M1.50 INCH       COLFAX             NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0312 PM     HAIL             2 ESE ALTO              33.39N 105.64W
07/01/2017  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0325 PM     HAIL             3 SSW FORT STANTON      33.46N 105.54W
07/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM     HAIL             SAN IGNACIO             35.77N 105.35W
07/01/2017  E1.50 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   PUBLIC

            HAIL REPORT IN SAN IGNACIO

0400 PM     HAIL             SAN IGNACIO             35.77N 105.35W
07/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   PUBLIC

            TREE DAMAGE

0440 PM     HAIL             2 N SAN ANTONIO         35.66N 105.24W
07/01/2017  M1.00 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

0510 PM     HAIL             2 NNW LAS VEGAS         35.62N 105.23W
07/01/2017  E1.00 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   COCORAHS

0926 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW TEXICO            34.43N 103.07W
07/01/2017  M64 MPH          CURRY              NM   AWOS

            KCVN AWOS.

0931 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N CANNON AFB          34.39N 103.31W
07/01/2017  M58 MPH          CURRY              NM   ASOS

            KCVS ASOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702091 ABQ1702092 ABQ1702095 ABQ1702093 ABQ1702094
ABQ1702097 ABQ1702096 ABQ1702100 ABQ1702098 ABQ1702099

JLP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
159 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NMZ539-022030-
Eastern Lincoln County-
159 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

At 159 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Tinnie, or 31 miles east of Ruidoso, moving northeast
at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sunset.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3319 10529 3345 10517 3331 10490 3313 10508
      3313 10517
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 210DEG 12KT 3321 10516

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
239 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NMZ530-022115-
Union County-
239 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MDT...

At 239 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clayton Lake State Park, or 13 miles northwest of Clayton, moving
east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Clayton Lake State Park and Seneca.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 10342 3669 10340 3671 10308 3644 10312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 276DEG 10KT 3660 10332

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
313 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2017

NMZ530-022145-
Union County-
313 PM MDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM MDT...

At 313 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clayton Lake State Park, or 7 miles northwest of Clayton, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clayton and Clayton Lake State Park.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 10304 3640 10304 3627 10317 3650 10341
      3664 10326 3653 10300 3650 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 312DEG 11KT 3653 10327

34