Special Weather Statement, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1150 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Showers and thunderstorms will favor the southwest mountains and
areas along and east of the central mountain chain again today with a
few isolated storms also filling between. Some storms will be strong
to severe again along and east of the central mountain chain with
activity drifting east or southeast at about 10 to 15 mph through the
afternoon and evening. Large hail, gusty downburst winds, and heavy
downpours will temporarily bring ceilings/visibility down to MVFR/IFR
categories. Any storms that develop along or west of the Rio Grande
would generally tend to produce more gusty winds rather than heavy
rain/hail. Storms are expected to slowly diminish through the late
evening and early morning hours Thursday.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another active weather day is expected from the central mountain
chain eastward today. A few of the thunderstorms across the eastern
plains may become severe during the late afternoon and into the
evening. Drier air will begin filtering into the state from the west
on Thursday, limiting thunderstorms to the southwest mountains and
eastern plains. Drier air will overtake all but the far northeast
plains on Friday. Temperatures will warm several degrees most areas Friday
as a ridge of high pressure moves over central New Mexico. The very
warm to locally hot conditions will continue into the weekend. Winds
will also be on the increase over the weekend as an unseasonably
strong upper low moves east through the northern Rockies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quite the low level push from the east once again early this
morning. East winds at KABQ gusting as high 45 mph. A similar weather
scenario to Tuesday is expected today with northwest flow aloft
interacting with a moist low level sely flow. Isolated severe
thunderstorms a good bet once again this afternoon and evening east
of the central mountain chain as another 45-50kt nwly jet moves
through ern NM. Rain cooled air across the east will result in more
east canyon winds for the RGV this evening and overnight. NAM12 a bit
more optimistic than past runs with regard to isold showers or
storms getting going across the ABQ metro this evening associated
with the moist ely surge moving wwd into the valley.

Models agree that the upper level ridge axis over western NM shifts
east over central nm Thursday. This shift results in a more wly
component to winds aloft and a lee side sfc trough developing across
northeast NM. The increasing low level west winds associated with the
lee trough start to scour out the low level moisture Thursday
afternoon, relegating thunderstorms to the eastern plains and
possibly the southwest mountains. Dry air from the west overtakes
the entire state Friday. Latest temperature guidance a few degrees
warmer for Friday through the weekend with mid to upper 90s forecast
for the mid RGV with upper 90s and low 100s for the lower RGV and
lower Pecos Valley. Very and breezy to locally windy conditions
expected for all areas over the weekend.

GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement for early next week. Both
models bring a portion of the unseasonably deep upper low over the
PACNW and northern Rockies sewd through the Great Basin and central
Rockies. Both models bring the associated dry cold front through NM
late-day Monday into Monday night. Temperatures cool initially due to
decreasing heights associated with the approaching trough Monday and
moreso behind the cold front Tuesday.

ECMWF starting to hint that the climatological upper high associated
with the North American Monsoon begins to take shape over Mexico late
next week. GFS, however, keeps the dry westerlies over the southwest
states.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today will be a repeat of yesterday, with the upper level ridge axis
firmly anchored along the AZ/NM border. Wetting showers and storms
are forecast east of the Continental Divide, with potential for a
few dry lightning strikes along and immediately west of the divide
where a dry lower boundary layer will be present as the westerlies
begin to intrude by late day. The best chances for wetting
precipitation will be along the east slopes of the Central Mountain
Chain and adjacent highlands during the afternoon hours, then
shifting out over the plains during the evening hours. The ridge
axis will shift east overnight through Thursday, allowing dry
westerlies to intrude further east as well. Look for a downtrend in
wetting storms Thursday, with the best chances across the Eastern
Plains.

The westerlies will increase Friday through Sunday as a potent
upper low/trough hits the Pacific NW and progresses east into the
Great Basin. A warming/drying trend is forecast across our area,
with a deepening lee side trough contributing to widespread windy
conditions by Sunday. Daytime temperatures will generally be above
normal Fri/Sat, with a slight dip Sunday as pressure heights fall
with the approaching trough. The setup going into the weekend will
bring high Haines, impressive mixing heights and elevated to
critical fire weather conditions, especially by Sunday when single
digit minimum humidity will be common across most of central and
western New Mexico. Sufficient drying may bring about a change in
fuels conditions across western New Mexico by Sunday to support
large fire growth and a red flag warning may be required.

The upper level trough will push a Pacific cold front through late
Monday or early Tuesday, shifting the focus for critical fire
weather conditions to the Eastern Plains where fuels will likely be
unsupportive of large fire growth.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
355 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017

NMZ501>540-081000-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
355 AM MDT Wed Jun 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
this evening for much of the east central and southeast plains of
New Mexico where isolated thunderstorms may be capable of producing
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few strong thunderstorms are possible across the eastern plains
Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, dry air from the west will
end thunderstorms chances on Friday. Very dry air along with very
warm to hot temperatures and breezy to locally windy conditions are
expected over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required today and for eastern New Mexico
due to the threat for severe thunderstorms.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
153 PM MDT WED JUN 7 2017

NMZ515-529-072030-
Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
153 PM MDT WED JUN 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY
UNTIL 230 PM MDT...

At 153 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Romeroville, or near Las Vegas, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Las Vegas, Romeroville, Montezuma, Tecolote, Chapelle, San Agustin,
Ojitos Frios, San Geronimo, Los Montoyas and San Pablo.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 331 and 347.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 10546 3568 10532 3549 10498 3529 10520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 311DEG 19KT 3556 10532

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
205 PM MDT WED JUN 7 2017

NMZ515-528-072045-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
205 PM MDT WED JUN 7 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MORA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 205 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Ocate, or 22 miles west of Springer, moving southeast
at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wagon Mound and Rayado.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 382 and 402.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3629 10514 3643 10498 3612 10453 3593 10477
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 315DEG 36KT 3631 10499

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