Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
307 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The warming trend continues this afternoon, except across the East
Central and Northeast Plains where a weak backdoor cold front is
providing several degrees of cooling. The backdoor front is
interacting with Gulf moisture across the East Central and Southeast
Plains to produce showers and storms, some of which may become severe
through the early evening hours. A second and stronger backdoor cold
front will plow down the Eastern Plains late tonight and may kick
off another round of storms. The front will create gusty east
canyon/gap winds early Tuesday morning from the Albuquerque Metro
area south to near Carrizozo. A new warming trend will begin
Wednesday and will send temperatures above normal areawide by
Thursday as dry westerly winds overtake the state. Windy conditions
are forecast both Thursday and Friday. Warm and dry conditions will
persist for central and western New Mexico through Memorial Day, but
a backdoor cold front will cool-down the Eastern Plains Sunday and
may trigger a few storms across the northeast quarter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today across central and western portions
of the area, but eastern portions of the area are cooler than
yesterday at this time thanks to a weak backdoor cold front. This
front is providing a focus for storms between Las Vegas and and
Clovis, where the 20Z LAPS analysis shows sbCAPE values approaching
2000 J/kg and LIs of -6C. However, the more favorable shear
environment is further south across the Southeast Plains and the low
level wind field is weak and disjointed, which explains the current
lack of storm structure. The latest NAM12 shows improving southeast
lower boundary layer flow developing by late afternoon across
Roosevelt County just before convection exits into Texas. So, the
severe threat looks to be somewhat limited at this time. A second and
stronger backdoor cold front is forecast to plow down the Eastern
Plains overnight and may result in a second round of convection,
although the severe potential looks limited once again given lack of
oppositional flow ahead of the front. The front will push through the
Central Mountain Chain early Tuesday morning and create gusty east
canyon/gap winds from Albuquerque south to near Carrizozo.

Cold air advection behind the front will send daytime temperatures 15
to 20 degrees below normal across the Eastern Plains Tuesday.
Temperatures will come down several degrees in the Rio Grande Valley
as well. A few storms are still possible over the Northern Mountains
late Tuesday, with favorable veering wind profiles, but the cooler
airmass with lower surface dewpoint temperatures will not be capable
of sustaining convection as it moves southeast off of the higher
terrain.

A new warming and drying trend will begin Wednesday as a ridge of
high pressure moves overhead. The ridge will be replaced with
increasing westerlies on Thursday, which still looks to be the
warmest day this forecast cycle with above normal temperatures
areawide. We're forecasting a high of 100 degrees at Roswell
Thursday and only 89 degrees at the Albuquerque Sunport. If we hit 90
at KABQ Thursday, that would be the first 90 degree day of the
calendar year and one day prior to our average 1st 90 degree day.
Windy conditions are forecast Thursday and will persist into Friday.

Warm/dry conditions will persist for central and western portions of
the area through Memorial Day weekend, but a backdoor cold front will
drop down the Eastern Plains Saturday night into Sunday and provide
some cooling there. The backdoor front may trigger a few storms late
Saturday and again Sunday, focusing across the northeast quarter.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry NW flow aloft over NM persists today, with increased low level
moisture remaining over the eastern plains. Afternoon storms have
already fired up over the eastern plains and will persist through the
evening hours, with a few storms capable of producing large hail and
erratic gusty winds up to 60 mph. The dryline over the E. plains
will slowly push east this afternoon before retreating west after
sunset. A moderately strong backdoor front will push south across the
eastern plains overnight washing out the dryline as it progresses.
Isolated to scattered shower activity can be expected with the
passage of this front overnight. Breezy to windy conditions can be
expected through the gaps of the central mtns into the central valley
including ABQ Metro in the early morning hours. There is still some
forecast uncertainty for just how long these winds will persist.

Mixing hgts fall to below 10,000' AGL across NM except over the Gila
Tuesday. Vent rates fall to poor to fair across the east behind the
passage of the front, but rebound Wednesday. Daytime highs also fall
15-20F below average Tuesday behind the front across the eastern
plains. A dry slot of NW flow looks to mix to the sfc Tuesday
afternoon lowering dewpoints enough to allow for a few hours of
critical fire conditions for the eastern half of zone 101. Have
decided against issuing a warning here due to persistence for only a
couple of hours, and green up of vegetation in the area. A few more
showers and storms could fire up lee of the Sangre's Tuesday
afternoon. Temperatures rebound quickly Wednesday as a weak ridge
begins to build in from the SW. Daytime highs hit their peaks for the
week Thursday 5-15F above average. A weak trough passes N of NM
Thursday enhancing the pressure gradient over NM and thus increasing
westerly winds. The higher winds and well above average highs will
combine for widespread critical fire conditions across NM Thursday
afternoon. Winds and daytime highs diminish somewhat Friday lowering
the spread of critical fire conditions.

Both the ECM and GFS depict lowering pressure heights for the weekend,
inducing a cooling trend back to normal Saturday. Another backdoor
front across the eastern plains looks to lower temperatures further
Sunday. After that, southerly return of Gulf moisture looks to occur
over the eastern plains potentially setting up afternoon storm
activity early next week.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE MVFR cigs are lifting across the eastern plains this
morning...with another round of showers and storms this afternoon. A
few storms are likely to become severe producing large hail and wind
gusts up to 50 kts. Timing the wind shifts with WNW winds mixing to
the surface at KLVS and KROW this afternoon was particularly
difficult. A backdoor front will shift winds again to the N and NE
overnight starting from the NE plains at KTCC and KLVS first, then to
KSAF and KROW, with gap winds expected at KABQ by 09Z and persisting
through the morning. Another round of MVFR cigs, possible IFR in
some spots, are likely across the eastern plains tomorrow morning
including KLVS, KTCC, and KROW.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  77  41  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  71  32  78 /   5   0   0   0
Cuba............................  40  72  38  80 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  37  76  37  84 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  35  74  35  81 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  37  76  36  84 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  46  75  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  45  92  43  91 /   5   0   0   0
Chama...........................  32  66  31  72 /  20   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  49  65  45  77 /  10  10   0   0
Pecos...........................  39  64  37  78 /  30  30   5   0
Cerro/Questa....................  36  64  33  75 /  50  20   5   0
Red River.......................  29  56  29  68 /  60  20   5   0
Angel Fire......................  30  55  28  69 /  60  30   5   0
Taos............................  35  65  32  78 /  30  10   0   0
Mora............................  38  59  37  75 /  50  30   5   0
Espanola........................  45  69  41  83 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Fe........................  47  66  44  79 /  20  20   5   0
Santa Fe Airport................  43  69  39  83 /  10  10   5   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  52  76  50  85 /   0   5   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  53  77  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  80  46  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  79  50  88 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  48  82  45  90 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  51  79  49  87 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  53  84  52  91 /  10   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  69  41  80 /  10  10   0   0
Tijeras.........................  42  70  40  81 /  10  10   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  38  71  38  83 /  10  10   0   0
Clines Corners..................  39  65  39  79 /  20  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  47  73  43  83 /  10  10   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  50  75  49  84 /  10   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  43  64  44  77 /  20  20   0   5
Capulin.........................  38  57  36  74 /  60  20   0   0
Raton...........................  40  62  34  78 /  50  20   0   0
Springer........................  42  63  36  79 /  40  20   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  38  59  35  79 /  40  20   5   0
Clayton.........................  41  63  41  78 /  50  10   0   0
Roy.............................  43  62  39  77 /  50  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  48  68  44  84 /  50  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  49  66  43  85 /  40  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  48  69  45  86 /  50  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  47  67  44  82 /  40  10   0   5
Portales........................  49  68  45  83 /  50  10   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  49  68  45  87 /  40  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  50  70  49  90 /  30  10   0   5
Picacho.........................  49  68  46  85 /  30  10   0   5
Elk.............................  48  66  46  82 /  20  20   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
for the following zones... NMZ105>107-109.

&&

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
432 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

NMZ501>540-231000-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
432 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening across the eastern plains of New Mexico. The primary focus
for the severe weather should be on the far eastern plains, which
includes Union, Harding, Quay, Curry and Roosevelt Counties, between
2 pm to 10 pm MDT. The main threats will be large hail and damaging
winds, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Strong
thunderstorms are likely to the west of this area, including Roy,
Santa Rosa, Fort Sumner and Roswell.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time. However...weather can
change very rapidly. Always use the latest forecasts...watches and
warning for planning purposes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or
by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and
photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

40

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 PM MDT MON MAY 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     HAIL             5 W HOUSE               34.65N 103.99W
05/22/2017  M1.00 INCH       QUAY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1701996

CA