Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Albuquerque, NM

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WWUS85 KABQ 111009
RFWABQ

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
309 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT NOON TO 6 PM TODAY FOR THE 
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW 
HUMIDITY...

.Strong westerly flow will continue across New Mexico today ahead
of a potent storm system developing along the west coast. Record 
high temperatures, low humidity, gusty winds, and unstable 
conditions will lead to critical fire weather conditions this
afternoon across much of the eastern plains.

NMZ103-111115-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FW.A.0004.170211T1900Z-170212T0100Z/
Northeast Highlands-
309 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2017

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Albuquerque has cancelled the
Fire Weather Watch. 

The combination of low humidity, strong winds and an unstable 
atmosphere necessary for the dangerous spread of fire will not be
present across the Northeast Highlands today.

$$

NMZ104-108-120100-
/O.CON.KABQ.FW.W.0003.170211T1900Z-170212T0100Z/
Northeast Plains-East Central Plains-
309 AM MST Sat Feb 11 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MST
THIS EVENING...

* AREA AND TIMING...Northeast and East Central Plains this
  afternoon and early evening.

* 20 FOOT WINDS...West to southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to
  40 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...10 to 15 percent.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Please advise the appropriate officials or fire crews in the
field of this Red Flag Warning.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
427 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Gusts near 30kt across portions of NM will diminish after sunset,
except across the Sangre de Cristo Mtns where winds will increase
through the overnight period. Gusts near 45kt will be possible in
this area and mountain waves are possible. Winds across lower
elevations will ramp back up again Saturday morning. Gusts between 30
and 40kt will be likely east of the central mountain chain, with
lesser winds across the west. Otherwise, clouds across northwest NM
will become thicker and lower through Saturday.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
Big changes on the way. Dry and unseasonably warm conditions today
and Saturday will be replaced by dramatically colder temperatures,
strong winds and widespread precipitation starting Saturday night
and continuing into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Record warmth at numerous locations today with a good amount of
sunshine and gusty winds. Mild tonight with increasing high clouds
in the northwest and strong winds developing over the Sangre de
Cristo mountains. Another exceptionally warm day Saturday, but not
as extreme as today. The strong winds will expand into the far
northeast.

A powerful back door cold front will blast south into eastern NM
Saturday night and rush west through the central mountain gaps into
the Rio Grande Valley later Saturday night through Sunday morning.
Wind gusts could exceed 60 mph at ABQ. Dramatically colder air will
follow behind the front, with highs around 40 degrees lower on the
far eastern plains Sunday and around 20 degrees lower from the
central valleys to the Continental Divide. Rain will begin in the
northwest Saturday afternoon. Precipitation will expand east Saturday
night and south on Sunday, with widespread precipitation Sunday
night through Monday night. Snow will fall in the mountains, with
rain in the valleys and plains mixing with or turning to all snow
starting Sunday night. Significant accumulations are possible with
around 1 foot of snow in many mountain locations. Details are still
fuzzy with this storm as models have different timings and tracks, so
stay tuned.

Drier and milder air will return for the middle of next week. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns/Red Flag conditions will persist across the NE
Plains today...entire eastern plains Sat as the dry, warm, and windy
pattern continues. Highs will continue to be 25-35 degrees above Feb
norms followed by low RH values/overnight recoveries. Vent rates
will continue to be a mixed bag today before improving to excellent
ratings central and east Sat. The strongest winds will be felt
across the Sangre De Cristos tonight-Sat night...expanding to
portions of the east central plains Sat aftn.

The big major turn around will occur late Sat into early Sunday as
the upper low dives across central Arizona. A potent back door cold
front will push southwest across the state...plummeting temperatures
20-40 degrees below normal Sun-Mon and developing strong advisory
level/high wind warning gap winds along the central mtns/central
valleys Sun morning through Sun evening. Wetting precipitation
chances will increase north and west Sun before becoming widespread
Mon as the upper low centers itself over northern Old Mexico. With
the back door cold front already bringing colder air southward...
moisture associated with upper low will usher north and west helping
expand wetting precipitation coverage. Most mountainous areas will
favor moderate to heavy snow showers while lower elevations could
see rain and snowfall less than 2 inches.

Mon-Tues wetting precipitation coverage could vary based on location
of the upper low. GFS has the low center remaining south of NM
traveling toward TX...which precipitation will favor areas along and
south of the I-40 corridor. The ECWMF has the low center inching
above the NM/Old Mexico border traveling eastward to TX as
well...but precipitation could remain a little more widespread with
the low center a little farther north than the GFS. The question at
this point is which model will win. Meanwhile, temperatures will
remain below normal through late Tues before they rebound Wed toward
the end of the week after passage of the upper low. Upper level
ridging will once again build over the region with a ridge axis over
NM Fri. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for the following zones...
NMZ104-108.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for the following
zones... NMZ104.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for the following
zones... NMZ527>532.

Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for the following zones...
NMZ513>515.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
424 AM MST Fri Feb 10 2017

NMZ501>540-111300-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
424 AM MST Fri Feb 10 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A Pacific storm system is forecast to combine with a strong backdoor
cold front, bringing widespread low elevation rain and mountain snow
to much of the region Sunday night through Monday night. Much colder
temperatures along with strong east and northeast winds will
accompany the front. Strong east canyon winds will develop in the Rio
Grande valley Sunday morning with gusts to 45 mph possible.
Improving conditions are anticipated Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts through the
National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq
or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
335 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2017

NMZ501>540-111200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-
Southwest Chaves County-
335 PM MST Fri Feb 10 2017

...A BREWING WINTER STORM TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

The combination of a strong backdoor cold front and a deepening
Pacific storm system will bring much colder temperatures, strong
winds and increasing chances for precipitation beginning late
Saturday, peaking Sunday night through Monday night, then
diminishing Tuesday.

The backdoor cold front will plow south and west through New
Mexico Saturday night, with cold air moving in behind it providing
quite the contrast from today's and Saturday's unusually warm
conditions. Strong east canyon winds are expected behind the cold
front at favored locations in the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa
Valleys. Initially, mountain snow and valley rain is forecast, but
snow levels will gradually fall Sunday night into Monday to
include the Albuquerque and Santa Fe Metros. Significant snow
accumulation is possible from late Saturday night through Monday
night in the mountains and across the highlands adjacent to the
Central Mountain Chain. Some sleet may mix with the rain and snow
in Curry, Roosevelt and eastern Chaves Counties.

Monitor NOAA weather radio, weather.gov/abq or your local media
for the latest updates and potential watches, advisories or
warnings due to these changing and challenging weather conditions.
For the latest New Mexico road conditions call 511 or visit
nmroads.com.

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