Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Albuquerque, NM

628 
WGUS75 KABQ 290149
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
749 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017

NMC001-057-290245-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-170729T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bernalillo-Torrance-
749 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM MDT FOR
BERNALILLO AND NORTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES...

At 745 PM MDT, thunderstorms were decreasing in strength across the 
warned area, however runoff from previous rainfall is expected to 
continue. This will keep a high threat of flash flooding through 9 
pm MDT, especially through the Canon de Chilili.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Chilili, Escabosa and Tajique. 

This will impact the Dog Head fire burn scar including but not
limited to La Jara Canyon, La Jara Road, Arroyo De Chilili,
Aceves Road, Arroyo Chinchonte, Manzano Morning and Twin Peaks Drive,
and State Road 337.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Runoff from rainfall will cause elevated water levels within 
vulnerable drainages in and downstream of the Dog Head fire burn 
area.

To report flooding, contact the National Weather Service Office in 
Albuquerque at 1.888.386.7637.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 10612 3491 10612 3477 10621 3478 10640
      3492 10639

$$

Shoemake

454 
WGUS75 KABQ 290236
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
836 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017

NMC001-057-290246-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0014.000000T0000Z-170729T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bernalillo-Torrance-
836 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR BERNALILLO AND NORTHWESTERN TORRANCE
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM MDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3499 10612 3491 10612 3477 10621 3478 10640
      3492 10639

$$

RJH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
231 PM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air aloft has already begun working into southeastern New
Mexico this afternoon. This dry air will keep more than a storm or
two from developing across the southeast and east-central plains this
evening while scattered to numerous storms are forecast across the
northwest half of the state this evening and over the weekend.
A backdoor front will reintroduce moisture across northeast and
east-central areas Sunday and across the remainder of the plains
Monday. The active to very active pattern continues Tuesday and
Wednesday with some drying expected during the latter half of next
week. Temperatures will be near seasonal average for late July and
early August.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Messy upper high circulation now splitting in two with one centroid
over northern AZ/southern UT and another over west TX. Drier air
aloft has begun working into the southeast third of the state this
afternoon, keeping storms confined to the south-central mountains.
Hi- res models hint at some thunderstorm outflow boundary collisions
in the mid RGV this evening but most activity will likely remain the
the north and northwest of the ABQ and Santa Fe metros.

Weather prediction models agree that the dry air aloft will keep
southeast and east-central NM mainly thunderstorm free until Sunday
when a backdoor boundary drops in from the northeast bringing low
level moisture as well as providing a trigger for storms. Scattered
to numerous convection remains on track across the northwest half of
the state over the weekend. Models remain in good agreement that the
above mentioned boundary will push swwd into central and western NM
Sunday night and Monday. This feature will once again replenish low
level moisture and act as a trigger for widespread numerous storms
all Monday and again Tuesday.

GFS keeps things active Wednesday but the ECMWF starts to dry out the
northeast half. Both models keep the Four Corners upper high across
the Great Basin through next week. This allows backdoor fronts/boundaries
to drop in from the northeast so at no point do things completely dry
out during the next week. Additionally, a northerly flow aloft
during the latter half of next week should help out the areas that
keep getting missed by convection over the past couple of weeks.
Temperatures, for once in quite sometime, are forecast to be very
near seasonal averages for late July into early August.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Good chances for wetting/soaking rains will focus over central and
western New Mexico this evening, as drier air rotates around the
upper high circulation into the southeast half of the state. Look
for good to excellent humidity recovery tonight, followed by a
slightly warmer/drier day Saturday with storms focused across the
western higher terrain. PWATs will begin to trend back up Sunday
thanks in part to a weak backdoor front across the northeast
quarter. Daytime temperatures through the weekend will generally be
above normal east central/southeast and below normal elsewhere.

The upper high will begin to shift west across southern New Mexico
Monday into Tuesday as a second upper high center over Nevada
becomes dominant. Northerly flow aloft will develop late Tuesday into
Wednesday, which will allow for a backdoor front and westward
progression of moisture across our area. This will result in
increasing chances for storms and wetting rain going into mid week
across much of the area. Daytime temperatures will be below normal
early to mid week thanks to the backdoor front and rain cooling.
Chances for storms will then persist into late week, although with a
slight warming/drying trend as high pressure aloft begins to shift
back southeast toward New Mexico.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Storms will focus over north central and northwest New Mexico this
afternoon/evening. KFMN and KGUP are most likely to be impacted,
followed by KSAF and KLVS. MVFR impacts are likely with storms,
especially at KFMN and KGUP. Mountain obscurations are likely as
well. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to
persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  87  63  88 /  50  30  30  50
Dulce...........................  54  81  55  81 /  60  50  30  50
Cuba............................  57  80  57  80 /  70  40  30  60
Gallup..........................  58  82  58  83 /  60  40  40  50
El Morro........................  54  79  55  79 /  50  50  50  50
Grants..........................  57  85  57  85 /  70  50  30  40
Quemado.........................  57  80  57  80 /  40  50  50  70
Glenwood........................  63  87  63  85 /  50  40  40  50
Chama...........................  54  78  51  77 /  60  60  40  80
Los Alamos......................  59  81  59  81 /  40  50  30  50
Pecos...........................  58  81  58  81 /  30  40  20  70
Cerro/Questa....................  54  77  53  76 /  60  40  20  80
Red River.......................  49  69  48  67 /  70  60  20  80
Angel Fire......................  50  73  48  72 /  70  60  70  80
Taos............................  55  81  54  81 /  50  30  20  50
Mora............................  55  78  55  76 /  40  50  30  80
Espanola........................  62  88  62  87 /  40  30  20  30
Santa Fe........................  59  83  60  82 /  40  30  20  50
Santa Fe Airport................  60  87  60  87 /  30  20  20  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  64  90  65  91 /  30  20  20  40
Albuquerque Heights.............  66  90  66  90 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  92  64  92 /  20  10  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  91  66  91 /  20  20  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  61  93  63  93 /  10  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  65  90  66  90 /  20  20  20  40
Socorro.........................  66  92  67  92 /  10  20  20  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  84  60  83 /  40  30  30  60
Tijeras.........................  60  86  61  86 /  40  20  30  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  59  86  59  86 /  20  20  20  50
Clines Corners..................  59  85  58  85 /  20  20  20  40
Gran Quivira....................  61  86  61  86 /  10  20  20  20
Carrizozo.......................  64  88  64  88 /   5  30  10  30
Ruidoso.........................  58  82  58  82 /   5  40  20  30
Capulin.........................  59  82  57  78 /  40  30  30  60
Raton...........................  58  86  57  84 /  60  20  20  70
Springer........................  60  87  59  86 /  50  20  20  60
Las Vegas.......................  57  83  57  81 /  30  20  20  70
Clayton.........................  64  89  64  86 /  20  20  30  40
Roy.............................  62  87  62  86 /  30  20  10  70
Conchas.........................  69  95  69  93 /  10  10   5  40
Santa Rosa......................  65  93  66  93 /  10  10   5  30
Tucumcari.......................  70  98  69  97 /  10  10   0  40
Clovis..........................  68  93  67  92 /   5  10   0  20
Portales........................  69  93  68  91 /   5  10   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  69  93  68  92 /   5  10   0  20
Roswell.........................  70  99  70  98 /   5  10   0  10
Picacho.........................  64  90  64  90 /   5  10   0  20
Elk.............................  61  85  61  85 /   5  20   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

33

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
422 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

NMZ501>540-291000-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
422 AM MDT Fri Jul 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall will impact localized areas across the northwest third
to half of the state this afternoon and evening. Some isolated flash
flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will increase later
Sunday across the northeast half of the state and then trend westward
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

50

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
457 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017

NMZ508-282330-
Southwest Mountains-
457 PM MDT FRI JUL 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

At 457 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Luna, or 13 miles northwest of Reserve, moving
northwest at 5 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Luna.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3397 10904 3407 10879 3386 10872 3378 10892
      3393 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 154DEG 6KT 3389 10886

44