Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Albuquerque, NM

078 
WGUS75 KABQ 010504
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1104 PM MDT FRI JUN 30 2017

NMC011-019-037-010514-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170701T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
De Baca-Quay-Guadalupe-
1104 PM MDT FRI JUN 30 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DE BACA...SOUTHWESTERN
QUAY AND EAST CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3497 10405 3453 10396 3464 10441 3497 10435

$$

34

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA have developed along the central mountain chain this
afternoon, and across NE NM several storms have moved over lower
elevations have increased in intensity. Large hail and gusty winds to
50kt will be possible with these storms through the evening. Brief
MVFR cigs can be expected with these storms as well, though
confidence is low that any taf site will take a direct hit. IFR cigs
are expected to develop after midnight along and east of the central
mt chain. Confidence is increasing that KLVS, KTCC and KROW will be
impacted thru at least mid morning Saturday. Gap winds will return
to KSAF and KABQ this evening as the front pushes west, with gusts
near 35kt possible for ABQ. Will continue to evaluate the need for an
AWW this evening. Strongest winds are expected between 03Z and 08Z.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017...
.SYNOPSIS...
A back door cold front will continue to spread cooler air, more humid
air and heightened thunderstorm chances along and east of the central
mountain chain through tonight. Strong to a few severe storms are
expected across the high plains of northeast and east central New
Mexico into the evening. Easterly gap winds will develop along the
Rio Grande Valley this evening into Saturday morning as the cooler
air mass builds westward. With a fresh inject of moisture,
thunderstorm chances will favor areas between the Continental Divide
and the central mountain chain Saturday, with continued storm
activity in the east. Drier air will then spread back eastward and
into western areas for Sunday limiting storm activity to areas along
and east of the central mountain chain through Monday. A potentially
more active thunderstorm pattern could set up for central and western
New Mexico mid to late next week as the Four Corners high builds and
centers just north of the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cooler air mass gradually building westward along/toward the east
slopes of the central mountain chain. East-west MSLP gradient will
continue to strengthen through late afternoon/early evening before
acute onset of easterly gaps winds along the Rio Grande Valley just
before sunset. Instability axis along/just north of the frontal
boundary from south of Roswell to vicinity of the Caprock where
uncapped surface-based CAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Farther
north, across northeast portions of the state, where 0-6km bulk shear
values 45-50 kts beneath enhanced mid- level westerlies, on-going
severe storms should gradually increase in coverage. Possible MCC
development toward early evening but would like to see more of
northwesterly component to mid- level flow to support sustained
upscale organization. Went ahead and expanded chance PoP a bit
farther south into the southeast plains.

Westerly flow to gradually relax as the day progresses Saturday in
response to gradually rising 500mb heights. Tomorrow's convective
forecast will be largely if not entirely depend on how far west
quality low level moisture reaches. Past experience/pattern
recognition would favor areas east of the Divide to east slopes of
the central mountain chain for initial midday development. Weaker
steering winds should delay or perhaps limit the eastward extent of
convection across the far eastern plains Saturday afternoon or
evening. However, potential for at least isolated strong to severe
storms given favorable directional vertical wind shear and would not
completely rule out that potential along the east slopes of the Jemez
Mountains and central valley corridor.

Influence of drier westerlies returns to western NM on Sunday and
quality of low level moisture will be significantly degraded west of
the central mountain chain. If we do manage a few storms the will
tend to drier side with dry lightning a concern.

Beyond Sunday, the Four Corners high steadily strengthens and shifts
north during the Independence Day holiday period and especially
during the Wed/Thu period with a 598-599 dam high centered just north
of the state. NE/E to SW/W steering flow for mid to late week will
likely prove quite promising for storm coverage between the Divide
and east slopes of the central mountain chain with the Rio Grande
valley and WC/SW valleys often among the most favored areas in these
patterns, while the far east will be least favored given steering
flow considerations. Will anxiously watch potential for deeper sub-
tropical moisture to spread into southern areas. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A back door cold front has invaded eastern NM, bringing temperatures
back toward and even below normal values for late June. The front
has also recharged the moisture with higher dewpoints and
consequently higher RH. The front is also triggering thunderstorms
along and just east of the northern and central mountains of NM, a
trend that should continue into the evening with some strong to
severe storms producing localized but hefty downpours. A stark
boundary is hovering just near the central mountain chain,
separating the hotter, drier airmass to the west where widespread 5
to 10 percent humidity is being observed. Into the evening the front
should gain a second push, allowing gusty winds to spill into the
Rio Grande valley with higher moisture accompanying. Excellent RH
recovery should make a run to the Continental Divide overnight as
the higher dewpoints advance westward.

High pressure aloft will stay over Chihuahua on Saturday, and the
surface winds will quickly veer southerly over the plains of NM
through the afternoon with moisture standing its ground over the
plains, but eroding some between the Continental Divide and the Rio
Grande. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible along and east
of the Continental Divide and will likely come easier over and east
of the central mountain chain Saturday afternoon. Outside of any
thunderstorm outflows, prevailing wind speeds will be light to
moderate. Areas west of the Divide will suffer through the dryness
again. Despite the moisture in the central to eastern zones, high
Haines indices of 5 to 6 will be in place.

Through Sunday high pressure aloft will slowly be drawn closer to
the Chihuahua border with NM. Westerly flow looks as though it will
win out, wrapping around the northern periphery of the high, and
while speeds are expected to be light to moderate, the dewpoints
should begin to fall some in central NM.  This will shift any
thunderstorm activity to more of a drier variety in western and
portions of central NM. Isolated to scattered storms will still be
the rule for areas along and east of the central mountain chain
where moisture will attempt to stay better rooted. Temperatures in
the east will rebound back toward seasonal averages, and this will
reduce RH to near 15 to 20 percent.

Into next week high pressure will gradually build over the Rockies
with strengthening pressure heights. Through this time, low layer
moisture will be attempting to slosh farther west into NM. With not
much of a footprint into the state on Monday, it should inch
westward each day, encompassing much of the east by mid week with
some meager hints of subtropical moisture possibly even arriving
over the southwestern mountains. 52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
449 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017

NMZ501>540-011100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
449 AM MDT Fri Jun 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the northeast
third to half of New Mexico mid afternoon through the evening. Large
hail, strong wind and a slight chance of tornadoes exist.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across east central
New Mexico Saturday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required across northeast New Mexico today
due to severe weather.

50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
616 PM MDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 NW SEDAN             36.27N 103.33W
06/30/2017  E70 MPH          UNION              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702068

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
646 PM MDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     SEDAN                   36.15N 103.13W
06/30/2017  E60 MPH          UNION              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702069

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
659 PM MDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             13 S MOUNT DORA         36.34N 103.51W
06/30/2017  M1.00 INCH       UNION              NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702070

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
804 PM MDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             NEWKIRK                 35.07N 104.26W
06/30/2017  E0.88 INCH       GUADALUPE          NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702071

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
817 PM MDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             13 SSE NEWKIRK          34.89N 104.19W
06/30/2017  E0.88 INCH       GUADALUPE          NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702072

DAK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
849 PM MDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             16 ENE SUMNER LAKE      34.73N 104.14W
06/30/2017  E1.75 INCH       DE BACA            NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1702073

DAK