Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Las Vegas, NV

160 
WWUS45 KVEF 042319
WSWVEF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
319 PM PST MON JAN 4 2016

.A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW
ABOVE 5500 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...
SOUTHERN NEVADA...AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. ANOTHER STORM WILL
LIKELY IMPACT THE SIERRA WEDNESDAY.

CAZ519-051200-
/O.CON.KVEF.WS.W.0001.160105T1200Z-160106T0600Z/
/O.CON.KVEF.WS.A.0002.160106T1800Z-160107T1200Z/
EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASPENDELL...MT WHITNEY
319 PM PST MON JAN 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST
TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA BEGINNING
  EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND EVENING.
  SNOWFALL SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY EVENING.

* SNOW LEVEL...BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET WITH SIGNIFICANT 
  ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ABOVE 5500 FEET. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4 TO 10 INCHES. 1 TO 2 
  FEET ABOVE 10000 FEET. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW 
  SHOWERS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ROAD RESTRICTIONS AND 
  CLOSURES. 

* WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY FOR ADDITIONAL 
  SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

CAZ521-051200-
/O.CON.KVEF.WS.W.0001.160105T1200Z-160106T0600Z/
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTGARD PASS...BRISTLECONE PINE
319 PM PST MON JAN 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST
TUESDAY...

* TIMING...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
  BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
  AND EVENING. SNOWFALL SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY EVENING.

* SNOW LEVEL...BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET WITH SIGNIFICANT 
  ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5500 FEET. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 10 INCHES EXCEPT 10 TO 20 
  INCHES ABOVE 10000 FEET. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW 
  SHOWERS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ROAD RESTRICTIONS AND 
  CLOSURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. 
&&

$$

NVZ018-019-051200-
/O.CON.KVEF.WS.W.0001.160105T1500Z-160106T1200Z/
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-RED ROCK CANYON-
INCLUDING...THE TOWN OF MT CHARLESTON...
RED ROCK CANYON
319 PM PST MON JAN 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO
4 AM PST WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP
  RANGE BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY
  NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE
  TUESDAY EVENING.

* SNOW LEVEL...6000 FEET TUESDAY MORNING DROPPING TO 5000 TO 5500
  FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
  ABOVE 5500 FEET.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 2 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 5500 
  FEET...6 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET. ISOLATED AREAS OF OVER 
  A FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR THE PEAKS. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW 
  SHOWERS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ROAD RESTRICTIONS AND 
  CLOSURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. 
&&

$$

AZZ001-CAZ522-NVZ014-015-051200-
/O.CON.KVEF.WW.Y.0001.160105T1500Z-160106T1500Z/
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLORADO CITY...
PIPE SPRING NATIONAL MONUMENT...TUWEEP...MT TRUMBELL...
WESTERN GRAND CANYON...FURNACE CREEK...STOVEPIPE WELLS...
SHOSHONE...BEATTY...GOLDFIELD...SILVER PEAK...DYER...CALIENTE...
PIOCHE...PANACA...HIKO...ALAMO...RACHEL
319 PM PST MON JAN 4 2016 /419 PM MST MON JAN 4 2016/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM PST /8 AM
MST/ TUESDAY TO 7 AM PST /8 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL
  PARK...SOUTHERN NEVADA...AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY BEGINNING
  TUESDAY MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
  MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE TUESDAY EVENING.

* SNOW LEVEL...6000 FEET TUESDAY MORNING DROPPING TO 5000 TO 5500
  FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
  ABOVE 5500 FEET.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR PEAKS ABOVE 7500 FEET.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. 
&&

$$

WOLCOTT

870 
WWUS45 KVEF 051050
WSWVEF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 AM PST TUE JAN 5 2016

.A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW ABOVE 5500
FEET TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA...AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA. ANOTHER SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
SIERRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CAZ519-051900-
/O.UPG.KVEF.WS.A.0002.160106T1800Z-160107T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KVEF.WS.W.0002.160106T1800Z-160107T1200Z/
/O.CON.KVEF.WS.W.0001.160105T1200Z-160106T0600Z/
EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASPENDELL...MT WHITNEY
250 AM PST TUE JAN 5 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM
PST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAS VEGAS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN SIERRA SLOPES...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SIERRA BEGINNING
  THIS MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT THEN SNOWFALL
  WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
  THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* SNOW LEVEL...BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET TODAY AND THIS EVENING
  THEN DROP TO THE LOWER SLOPES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 4 TO 10 INCHES WITH 1 TO 2
  FEET ABOVE 10000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8
  INCHES WITH GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW 
  SHOWERS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ROAD RESTRICTIONS AND 
  CLOSURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. 
&&

$$

CAZ521-051900-
/O.CON.KVEF.WS.W.0001.160105T1200Z-160106T0600Z/
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF INYO COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WESTGARD PASS...BRISTLECONE PINE
250 AM PST TUE JAN 5 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
  BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
  EVENING. SNOWFALL SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

* SNOW LEVEL...BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET WITH SIGNIFICANT 
  ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 5500 FEET. 

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 10 INCHES EXCEPT 10 TO 20 
  INCHES ABOVE 10000 FEET. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW 
  SHOWERS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ROAD RESTRICTIONS AND 
  CLOSURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. 
&&

$$

NVZ018-019-051900-
/O.CON.KVEF.WS.W.0001.160105T1500Z-160106T1200Z/
SHEEP RANGE-SPRING MOUNTAINS-RED ROCK CANYON-
INCLUDING...THE TOWN OF MT CHARLESTON...
RED ROCK CANYON
250 AM PST TUE JAN 5 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING
TO 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP
  RANGE BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
  WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE THIS EVENING.

* SNOW LEVEL...6000 FEET THIS MORNING DROPPING TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET
  BY TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 5500
  FEET.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 2 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 5500 
  FEET...6 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET. ISOLATED AREAS OF OVER 
  A FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR THE PEAKS. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY SNOW 
  SHOWERS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ROAD RESTRICTIONS AND 
  CLOSURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. 
&&

$$

AZZ003-051900-
/O.EXB.KVEF.WW.Y.0001.160106T0200Z-160106T1500Z/
NORTHWEST DESERTS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KINGMAN...GOLDEN VALLEY...
DOLAN SPRINGS...VALENTINE...WIKIEUP...YUCCA
350 AM MST TUE JAN 5 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 AM MST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAS VEGAS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THE NORTHWEST
DESERTS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
  MOUNTAINS INCLUDING THE HUALAPAI THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
  OVERNIGHT.

* SNOW LEVEL...6500 FEET THIS EVENING DROPPING TO 5500 FEET
  OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 6000
  FEET.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES. LOCALLY HIGHER
  AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR PEAKS.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. 
&&

$$

AZZ001-CAZ522-NVZ014-015-051900-
/O.CON.KVEF.WW.Y.0001.160105T1500Z-160106T1500Z/
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-
ESMERALDA AND CENTRAL NYE COUNTY-LINCOLN COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLORADO CITY...
PIPE SPRING NATIONAL MONUMENT...TUWEEP...MT TRUMBELL...
WESTERN GRAND CANYON...FURNACE CREEK...STOVEPIPE WELLS...
SHOSHONE...BEATTY...GOLDFIELD...SILVER PEAK...DYER...CALIENTE...
PIOCHE...PANACA...HIKO...ALAMO...RACHEL
250 AM PST TUE JAN 5 2016 /350 AM MST TUE JAN 5 2016/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM PST /8 AM
MST/ THIS MORNING TO 7 AM PST /8 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY...

* TIMING...MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL
  PARK...SOUTHERN NEVADA...AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY BEGINNING THIS
  MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
  HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE THIS EVENING.

* SNOW LEVEL...6000 FEET THIS MORNING DROPPING TO 5000 TO 5500 FEET
  BY TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 5500
  FEET.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES. LOCALLY 
  HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR PEAKS ABOVE 7500 
  FEET. 

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK...SNOW 
  COVERED ROADS AS WELL AS REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SNOW SHOWERS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING. 
&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
933 AM PST MON JAN 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
BRING SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING ACROSS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
WETTER AND BRING WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. HEAVY
SNOW IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
&&

.UPDATE...ANOTHER UPDATE TO TWEAK THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THROUGH
THE DAY. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE PUSHED PRECIP A BIT FURTHER
WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY GET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE
LAS VEGAS METRO AREA BY SUNSET/EVENING COMMUTE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED.
&&

.PREV UPDATE...755 AM PST MON JAN 4 2016...QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE
POPS TODAY...MAINLY FROM LAS VEGAS EAST WHERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
HAS BROKEN OUT THIS MORNING. LATEST SHORT-RANGE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO
INCREASED QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE PRIMARY INCREASE
OF NOTE OVER THE SPRING MOUNTAINS...WHERE WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. UPDATE FORECAST CALLS
FOR 2-4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET...BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH TODAY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH CIGS LOWERING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATEST THINKING IS THAT CIGS ARE LIKELY TO
DROP TO TO 3-5K FEET THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
IMPROVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. CIGS TUESDAY MAY DROP TO BELOW 2-3K FEET...WITH RAIN
SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CIGS DOWN TO 3-
5K FEET AT TIMES. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR LOW CIGS AND PRECIP WILL
BE ACROSS MOHAVE...LINCOLN...CLARK...AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE CIGS IN THE 5-10K FOOT RANGE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK IN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE SECOND IN A
SERIES OF WET SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
332 AM PST MON JAN 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ARE
FORECAST TO SEE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY...BUT MOST
OTHER AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWING LIGHT HIGH ELEVATION SHOWERS/VIRGA OVER AREAS MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 15...HOWEVER NOTHING HAS BEEN REPORTED OR MEASURED SO
FAR. DEW POINTS ARE STILL QUITE LOW OVER THE AREA SO IT WILL TAKE
SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME SATURATED ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE SURFACE. OVERALL FORCING WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE IS PRETTY WEAK AND OUTSIDE OF SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SEEING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS ARE NOT
NEEDED FOR TODAY.

IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT BETWEEN THIS FIRST
SYSTEM AND THE SECOND STRONGER SYSTEM WHICH WILL START TO IMPACT THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING WILL
MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SIERRA WHERE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO FALL. THE
CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SIERRA GOES INTO EFFECT AT 4AM
TUESDAY...BUT LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IT LOOKS LIKE
HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFTER ABOUT 9AM. AT THIS TIME WILL
LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE THE BEST TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT TO
UPGRADE THE WATCH. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE TROUGH IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
THAT THE SIERRA WILL NOT BE ABLE TO INTERCEPT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AND IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRIOR TO THE PRECIPITATION...AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS UP
TO 30 MPH...BUT AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE NOT PARTICULARLY LOW WITH
SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY REMAINING 5000 FEET AND HIGHER. LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 5000-7000 FEET COULD SEE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 3-7 INCH RANGE
WITH CLOSE TO A FOOT ABOVE 8000-9000 FEET. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
VALLEY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH
WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM AS A WEAK
VERY SHORT-LIVED SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A THIRD SYSTEM WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE LONG TERM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW AS MODEL AGREEMENT IS MARGINAL TO POOR...RUN-TO-RUN
VARIABILITY IS HIGH...AND FINE-SCALE DETAILS WILL BE CRITICAL TO
PREDICT LOCATION, TIMING, DURATION, AND QUANTITIES OF PRECIPITATION
ACCURATELY.

AFTER RAPID PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEXT IN
THE PARADE OF SYSTEMS MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL OUTPUT HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING IN 18Z WEDNESDAY
TO 00Z THURSDAY...THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER-SCALE
VORTICITY MAXIMA AND THE ORIENTATION OF UPPER- AND MIDLEVEL FLOW
THAT MAKE THE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION AND WINDS CHALLENGING.
PRECIPITATION OUTPUT IS TIED VERY CLOSELY TO PASSAGE OF THESE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
AREA...THE TIMING OF WHICH OFTEN VERIFY POORLY IN SUCH PATTERNS.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE OUTPUT ARE APPARENT. THERE
APPEAR TO BE TWO DISTINCT VORT MAXIMA THAT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BETWEEN 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. THIS RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WITH THE FIRST WAVE
18Z WEDNESDAY TO 06Z THURSDAY AND THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE SECOND
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE AREA 12Z THURSDAY TO 00Z
FRIDAY. THE FIRST WAVE APPEARS TO BE MORE EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED BY THE
SIERRA THAN THE SECOND SINCE THE SIERRA TAKES A MUCH MORE DIRECT HIT
FROM THE FIRST. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED PRECIP OUTPUT WITH THE
FIRST WAVE IS FAIRLY LIGHT AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND MOHAVE COUNTY. THE SECOND WAVE PRODUCES MORE SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-15.
MEANWHILE, THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WILL LIKELY SEE
SOME...BUT NOT A LOT...OF SPILLOVER FROM THE BARRAGE OF VORT MAXIMA
MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY
FALL FROM 4500-5500 FEET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO 3500-4500 FEET BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST QPF FOR THE FIRST WAVE IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES
(12Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z THURSDAY). FOR THE SECOND WAVE TOTALS RANGE
FROM A TRACE TO 0.25 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF I-15 TO 0.25-0.75
INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF I-15 (12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z FRIDAY). SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FAR LESS THAN THE TUESDAY-EARLY WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD. THE HIGH SIERRA AND WHITES MAY SEE 4-8 INCHES WITH
LOWER AMOUNTS BELOW 8000 FEET. THE SPRINGS AND SHEEP RANGE MAY
ACCUMULATE 2-5 MORE INCHES...WITH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND HIGH
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY SEEING 1-4 INCHES. ALL OF THIS IS SAID WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONFIDENCE IN MIND...DETAILS REGARDING
TIMING, LOCATION, AND QUANTITY OF PRECIP THIS FAR OUT ARE SUBJECT TO
CONSIDERABLE CHANGE.

MODELS THEN HINT AT A THIRD WAVE ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, AGREEMENT IS QUITE POOR AMONG THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS BEING MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP FOR OUR AREA
AND THE CMC GIVING US BASICALLY NONE AT ALL. THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE A
NORTHWEST-FLOW TYPE EVENT, WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE A COLDER/SOMEWHAT
DRIER SYSTEM. THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT SO FAR IN ADVANCE...PARTICULARLY THEIR ABILITY TO GENERATE
PRECIP IN OUR AREA. FOR NOW, JUST BROADBRUSHED PRECIP CHANCES WITH A
CLEAR NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TREND IN THE GRIDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW
LEVELS BY THIS POINT LOOK TO REACH 2500-4000 FEET.

BEYOND FRIDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED AS A COLD
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
CANADA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS LARGE-
SCALE FEATURE...AM EVEN LESS CONFIDENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE
TIMING OF SMALLER-SCALE VORT MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A DRIER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA...KEPT POPS
LOW WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FAVORING THE SIERRA AND THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. SINCE THE GFS/EURO ARE BOTH HINTING AT
PASSAGE BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...KEPT HIGHEST POPS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL GIVEN THE FREQUENT PASSAGE OF STORMS AND CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW THEREAFTER.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...WHILE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
RAIN...SNOW...OR OTHER WEATHER-RELATED IMPACTS.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
SHORT TERM........GORELOW
LONG TERM.........SHAFER

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