Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Las Vegas, NV

163 
WWUS55 KVEF 010046
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
546 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NVC017-010100-
/O.CON.KVEF.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-160801T0100Z/
LINCOLN NV-
546 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM PDT
FOR CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...

AT 543 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HEAVY
RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HIKO...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HIKO AND ALAMO. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE HIGH WINDS WHICH CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND
POWER LINES AND CASUE BLOWING DUST. ALSO...LIGHTNING CAN KILL! TAKE
COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE LAS VEGAS NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE VIA FACEBOOK OR TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 11529 3779 11511 3774 11469 3731 11516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 333DEG 16KT 3750 11508 

$$

JS

760 
WWUS55 KVEF 010100
SVSVEF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
600 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

NVC017-010107-
/O.EXP.KVEF.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-160801T0100Z/
LINCOLN NV-
600 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 600 PM PDT...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA HOWEVER A NEW CELL HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF ALAMO.
EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
ALONG HIGHWAY 93 IN THE ALAMO AREA.

LAT...LON 3763 11529 3779 11511 3774 11469 3731 11516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 333DEG 16KT 3750 11508 

$$

JS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
245 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the upcoming week...especially over the eastern half of the
area through mid week then mainly Mohave County late in the week.
The western portions of the area will be increasingly dry as the
wears on. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below seasonal
normals.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Wednesday night.

The 19Z (latest available) HRRR forecasts storms developing this
evening in Lincoln, NE Clark and northern Mohave counties and
essentially combining and moving south through Mohave County
overnight. Previous runs showed this to some extent but also had
storms moving into southern Mohave County this evening from
convection over central Arizona. If the storm track/intensity
forecast is correct for the activity moving north to south, much of
Lake Mead and points throughout Mohave County could see intense
rainfall. Will need to monitor future model runs to see if this
becomes a trend or just one of the various iterations of storm
formation and track visualized by the HRRR.

Tomorrow, forecasted moisture is down and instability is much weaker
although sufficient for more isolated to scattered thunderstorm
coverage from Lincoln County down through portions of Clark County
and in Mohave County. A few could form over the Sierra as well. The
forecast for Tuesday could be interesting...or much of the same
depending on the model. The GFS brings an easterly wave to southern
Mohave County Tuesday afternoon and this is supported by the ECMWF
which gens up a closed circulation over the Phoenix area within the
easterly wave. This is consistent with the previous nights model
solutions...only a little sooner. The NAM now reaches out to this
far in the forecast and does not show this feature...instilling some
doubt in overall forecast confidence. By Wednesday, the forecast
becomes even less distinct as the GFS lifts the wave up through
Mohave County while the ECMWF washes it out and the NAM has an
inverted feature over Mohave County. Bottom line is a low confidence
forecast and broad brushed pops for now as many things could change
between now and then. Temperatures through mid week are forecast to
be near or below normal but could end up being well below normal if
the easterly wave idea pans out.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Saturday...

In order to blend with neighboring offices a little better, minor
changes were made to the POP forecast in the extended otherwise
little to no change to other parameters. The following is from the
previous discussion.

Biggest feature of interest will be an inverted trough lifting
northward into Arizona late Tuesday through Thursday. This feature
will drive some very rich moisture into Arizona along with
considerable cloud cover. Being that our forecast area is on the
west edge of this, it may enhance our potential by easing the cloud
cover limitations on destabilization that will be more problematic
further east.  The feature will bear watching for the potential of
flash flooding. Otherwise...continued thunderstorm activity through
the week with our eastern areas most favored. Temperatures through
the period will remain near seasonal normals. &&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Winds across the valley continue to show
a distinct easterly component of 7-10 kts. Models forecast a change
to southerly direction after 22Z with some higher embedded gusts.
Confidence is low on timing of wind turn and whether the actual
direction will be south-southwest. Convection to the south could
bring in gusty southeast winds if storms kick out an outflow.
Otherwise, southwest winds up to 10 kts tonight outside of influence
from thunderstorm activity. Skies are expected to become partly to
mostly cloudy later this afternoon into the evening with cloud bases
generally above 10kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Similar conditions to Saturday expected with scattered
thunderstorms particularly across the southern Great Basin and
northwest Arizona. Otherwise...breezy southwest winds expected
through the afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Thunderstorm
outflow winds may impact TAF sites near Vegas and Bishop, but
occurrence, timing and direction are unknown. Sct clouds at or above
10k feet with convective turbulence near thunderstorms.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered thunderstorms are possible through the
night with locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning.
Most storms are expected to be wet. Temperatures will be near
seasonal normals and with the added monsoon moisture provide an
increase in both afternoon and morning humidity levels. Similar
conditions expected throughout the week.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

Discussion...Salmen

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