Special Weather Statement, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
157 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

20z surface analysis had boundary from central MT into northeast
CO. Ahead of boundary, 1-2KJ/kg MLCAPE is developing. MLCIN
eroding, especially over the higher terrain. CU field perking up a
bit from southeast MT into the Black Hills, which is ahead of a
very subtle shortwave over southeast MT, indicated by weak ACCAS
field. With upper ridge building over the CWA per water vapour
matinee, convective potential somewhat lower than yesterday but
severe threat is similar with storms that develop given 15-20m/s
0-6km bulk shear. CAMs suggest strong to severe storms to occur
in and near the Black Hills into south central SD where richest
boundary layer moisture exists. Activity will shift southeast
overnight. Temperatures will be near guidance.

Sunday, upper ridge over the northern plains with upper low moving
across south central Canada as tail end shortwave moves across
MT/ND. Aforementioned boundary shifts east with modest MLCAPE
developing ahead of it over western SD. MLCIN will be higher than
today with enough shear for severe storms if storms develop in the
afternoon and evening. Additional storms will occur Sunday night as
elevated convection on the SD plains pops up late given 25-35kt low
level jet. Temperatures will be near guidance ahead of boundary and
above guidance in the drier air behind it.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Zonal flow aloft early in the week will give way to southwesterly
flow Tuesday and Wednesday as upper level low moves across the
Pacific NW and eventually into the southern Canadian Prairie
Provinces. Weak disturbances in the flow will bring mostly
diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity Monday and
Tuesday, with the best chances across the Black Hills each
afternoon. Above average temperatures can be expected across much
of the area Monday and Tuesday, before a cold front passage late
Tuesday night and Wednesday brings more seasonable temperatures
for the rest of the week. Drier west-northwest flow late in the
week should bring mostly dry conditions, with just a slight chance
of thunderstorms at this point in some areas for Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 153 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2016

VFR conditions are generally expected across the area. A few
thunderstorms are likely to develop later this afternoon, mainly
across the Black Hills area, then track southeast across portions
of southwest and south central SD into the evening hours. Local
MVFR conditions and gusty winds will be possible near storms.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Helgeson
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
212 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

SDZ001-002-012>014-032-046-047-049-WYZ054>058-071-311300-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-HAAKON-
MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-
WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
212 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016 /312 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE
BLACK HILLS OF WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ024>031-041>044-072>074-311300-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-OGLALA LAKOTA-
JACKSON-BENNETT-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-
212 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AROUND AND NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
403 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

SDZ031-302230-
PENNINGTON CO PLAINS SD-
403 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PENNINGTON COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

AT 403 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CAPUTA...OR 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAPID CITY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FARMINGDALE AND CAPUTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4395 10307 4401 10305 4399 10278 4386 10283
      4386 10284
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 289DEG 16KT 4396 10300

TRIMARCHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
409 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

WYZ054-302300-
NORTHERN CAMBELL WY-
409 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 408 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF RECLUSE...OR 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF GILLETTE...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RECLUSE AND SPOTTED HORSE.

LAT...LON 4467 10600 4484 10600 4489 10540 4462 10539
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 265DEG 15KT 4474 10578

TRIMARCHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
421 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

WYZ054-056-302300-
WESTERN CROOK WY-NORTHERN CAMBELL WY-
421 PM MDT SAT JUL 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CAMPBELL AND
NORTHWESTERN CROOK COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

AT 419 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF WESTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS NORTH OF WESTON AND
WEST OF NEW HAVEN THROUGH 500 PM MDT.

LAT...LON 4470 10539 4485 10540 4489 10491 4462 10491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 263DEG 15KT 4472 10515

TRIMARCHI