Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
535 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...This Evening Through Wednesday Night
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016

The main upper low is now crossing the eastern Dakotas as it swings
northeast. Surface low is cross eastern SD with a narrow tongue of
instability across the CWA. MLCape values of around 1000-1500
J/kg...however shear is weak today. KUDX radar is showing convection
beginning across western SD into the WY Black Hills...with little
apparent organization based on the pulse type nature of these cell.
Can't rule out a storm or two becoming strong. Storms will dissipate
near sunset with dry weather expected the remainder of the night.

Shortwave upper ridge will slide across the region Wednesday.
Surface low with move into NCntrl WY with decent SE flow across wrn
SD. Temps will rise into the 80s to low 90s with the warmest spots
across SW to Cntrl SD. There is quite a bit of instability expected
across Wrn SD...however storm development isn't expected based on
the strength of the cap and lack of available forcing. Instead
mostly sunny skies are expected. Temps Wed night will be in the
upper 50s to upper 60s with mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday
Issued at 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016

An upper level trough will deepen over southwest Canada and the
northwest CONUS for Thursday through Saturday resulting in upper
ridge building over the southwest CONUS into the Great Lakes.
Thermal ridge will build over the CWA. Around the periphery of the
ridge, southwest flow aloft will slowly inch toward the northern
Plains bringing small chances for TSRA Friday and Saturday.
Southwest flow then comes into full effect by Sunday and
transitions to westerly flow aloft as upper ridge flattens across
the southern CONUS. Result will be periodic chances for TSRA,
especially during peak heating. Temperatures will be near
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening
Issued At 532 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016

Few CU wl dissipate this evening, then form again Wed aftn. Winds
wl shift to the NW early Wed as sfc trof crosses the area, then
return to the SE as sfc low dvlps over WY Wed aftn.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 230 PM MDT Tue Jun 14 2016

Amplifying upper ridge for Wednesday through Friday will support
much warmer temperatures as well as increased chances for
significant mixing and very low relative humidities across the
western half of the CWA. Minimum relative humidities in the teens
look probable during peak heating for Thursday and Friday over
northeast Wyoming and southwest South Dakota.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...Helgeson
AVIATION...55
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
631 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016

WYZ054-055-058-151245-
NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTON-
631 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ056-057-
071-151245-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-HAAKON-FALL RIVER-
OGLALA LAKOTA-JACKSON-BENNETT-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-
STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-
NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
631 AM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016 /731 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
346 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016

SDZ001-142230-
HARDING SD-
346 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HARDING COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

AT 346 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES WEST OF LADNER...OR 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO...MOVING
SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMP CROOK AND LADNER.

LAT...LON 4564 10353 4552 10400 4575 10405 4591 10404
      4595 10387 4595 10383
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 339DEG 16KT 4586 10393

CALDERON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
536 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             12 WSW LADNER           45.78N 103.96W
06/14/2016  E1.75 INCH       HARDING            SD   PUBLIC

            HAILED FOR 20-30 MINUTES. MOSTLY DIME-QUARTER SIZE WITH
            A FEW AS LARGE AS GOLF BALLS. 50-55 MPH WINDS GUSTS.

&&

AWARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
538 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND GST     12 WSW LADNER           45.78N 103.96W
06/14/2016  E55 MPH          HARDING            SD   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

&&

AWARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
542 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HEAVY RAIN       12 WSW LADNER           45.78N 103.96W
06/14/2016  M0.70 INCH       HARDING            SD   PUBLIC

&&

AWARD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
608 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016

SDZ001-012-150100-
BUTTE SD-HARDING SD-
608 PM MDT TUE JUN 14 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BUTTE AND
SOUTHWESTERN HARDING COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

AT 607 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14
MILES SOUTHWEST OF REDIG...OR 31 MILES NORTH OF BELLE
FOURCHE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CASTLE ROCK.

LAT...LON 4515 10388 4526 10370 4501 10315 4483 10352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 318DEG 24KT 4512 10375

AWARD

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