Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
221 PM MDT MON JUN 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016

20z surface analysis had elongated low pressure from eastern MT
into southeast WY. Dew points around 60F have pooled ahead of
boundary. 18z KUNR sounding showed about 1500J/kg MLCAPE with
little MLCIN. 80kt jet streak zooming into eastern WY/MT per water
vapour. Convection fired early as expected over WY and is now
heading and develop to the east and north. 0-1km shear not that
great and storms appear to be clustering versus distinct at this
point, limiting supercell and tornado potential. 0-6km bulk shear
increases to 20-25m/s through this evening as jet streak
translates east and southeast boundary layer flow increases.
Severe threat will continue through this evening. As storms move
east and large scale synoptic ascent increases tonight, expect a
fairly large blob of precipitation to move across the CWA as
700-500mb low closes off in WY and moves into ND Tuesday. Low
level moisture convergence may be sufficient to support locally
heavy rain across southern SD tonight. Activity will continue to
lift northeast Tuesday. Temperatures will be near guidance through
the period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016

Upper trough across southwest Canada into the northwest CONUS
will deepen for the second half of the week which will allow a
strong upper level ridge to develop over the central CONUS. CWA
will tend to be just on the back side of the ridge with
potentially active southwest flow close by, which suggests small
chances for TSRA warranted. For next weekend, guidance is in
pretty good agreement with ridge flattening some across the
northern tier states resulting a gradual increase in southwest and
then westerly flow aloft. Continued impulses expected to support
small pops for TSRA at times. Temperatures will ramp up
significantly for the second half of the week and then taper off
some for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1132 AM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016

Mainly VFR cigs/vis across the CWA with the exception of portions
of Western SD and the Black Hills where MVFR cigs persist. Daytime
heating should increase cloud bases to VFR this afternoon. Storms
will move from Wyoming into western SD by late afternoon. Some of
the stronger storms could create MVFR/IFR cigs/vis for a period of
time. Activity should push east of CWA after 09z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 218 PM MDT Mon Jun 13 2016

Amplifying upper/thermal ridge for Wednesday through Friday will
support very warm to hot temperatures as well as increased chances
for significant mixing and very low relative humidities across the
western half of the CWA. Minimum relative humidities in the teens
look probable during peak heating.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Helgeson
LONG TERM...Helgeson
AVIATION...McKemy
FIRE WEATHER...Helgeson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1112 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016

SDZ001-012-024>031-041-042-044-072>074-WYZ054>058-071-141300-
HARDING-BUTTE-NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-OGLALA LAKOTA-
BENNETT-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-
WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
1112 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THE BLACK HILLS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHEAST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE
AREA.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM 100 PM TO 900 PM. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND OVER FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NEAR
THE MONTANA BORDER.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ002-013-014-032-043-046-047-049-141300-
PERKINS-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-HAAKON-JACKSON-MELLETTE-
TODD-TRIPP-
1112 AM MDT MON JUN 13 2016 /1212 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA.

A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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