Severe Thunderstorm Warning 366, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
222 PM MDT MON SEP 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2016

Perturbed sw flow will remain in place in the period, supporting
continued unsettled weather in the region. Diurnal heating with a
boundary/dry line in place will support a line of sct convection
across the western third through evening. A few strong to severe
cells will be possible over ne WY where a bulls eye of 1000 J/kg
of CAPE will be in place, combined with sufficient deep layer
shear. Attention turns toward the next impulse ejecting out of the
central Rockies. Stalled frontal boundary to the se of the region
with deep moisture and ensuing fgen will support shra/ts
development over NE, which is expected to graze the far se. A few
stronger elevated cells with large hail may clip that area late
tonight. Otherwise, a few lingering rain showers will be possible
over the nw 2/3 through early tue. Added fog mention to all areas
late tonight given moist bl and general upslope flow. Mid level
impulse will advect over the fa tue with strong lift and ample ll
moisture likely supporting sct showers over the western third
through tue morning/waning and shifting ne through afternoon.
Additional isolated cells will be possible in the afternoon,
mainly the nw third. Otherwise ll ridging will support a cool day
as northerly flow is reinforced behind the impulse. Lowered highs
Tue for this given clouds and ne upslope flow. Another strong
impulse will advect east across the northern plains tue night,
increasing lsa across the fa. Shra/isold ts will be possible
across the area, esp the far nw (closer to stronger lift) and
scentral SD where the old frontal boundary and deeper moisture
will reside.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2016

Slow moving upper trough will finally track over and
east of the area on Wednesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
will continue across parts of the area early Wed mainly across nw
SD...but will slide east of the area by mid to late afternoon. Weak
upper ridging Thursday will further break down across the region as
the next upper level system quickly approaches. This system will
bring some chances for precip Thu night into Fri. Stronger ridging
will then take over for the weekend bringing dry weather and temps
in the 70s and 80s. Longer range models are then hinting at cooler
and more unsettled weather for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 222 PM MDT Mon Sep 5 2016

MVFR cigs across the area will gradually scatter out
across wrn SD through the afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are then expected to develop this afternoon and
evening over most of the area. MVFR/IFR conditions w/ fog are
expected to return across portions of the area tonight.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
351 AM MDT MON SEP 5 2016

SDZ046-047-049-061000-
MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-
451 AM CDT MON SEP 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT...WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-072>074-WYZ054>058-071-061000-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-HAAKON-FALL RIVER-
OGLALA LAKOTA-JACKSON-BENNETT-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-
NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
351 AM MDT MON SEP 5 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS
OF SOUTH DAKOTA...WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST WYOMING...AND
THE BLACK HILLS OF WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
224 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0208 PM     HAIL             10 N HULETT             44.82N 104.63W
09/05/2016  E0.50 INCH       CROOK              WY   PUBLIC

            GROUND NEARLY COVERED IN HAIL

&&

MCKEMY