Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
253 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Current surface map shows low over southeast Montana with trof
into the Nebraska Panhandle. Weak shortwave crossing the forecast
area triggering scattered thunderstorms. MLCAPE ranges from around
1000J/kg across northeast Wyoming with 4000+J/kg across northwest
South Dakota. Sufficient shear for a few severe storms, especially
across northwest South Dakota. Bulk of thunderstorm activity will
move east of the forecast area overnight.

Cold front crosses northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota
late tonight...and through south central South Dakota around noon.
Highs 10-15F cooler for Saturday. BL-850mb winds support northwest
winds of 15-30 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

High pressure over the Dakotas for Sunday. With marginal
moisture...and isolated afternoon thunderstorm is possible over
the Black Hills.

Upper flow will be quasi-zonal Sunday through next Thursday, with
periodic shortwave troughs bringing a daily chance for
thunderstorms. Temperatures will be slightly above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this morning from northeast
WY into northwest SD. Potentially severe storms will develop this
afternoon with local LIFR conditions possible with any storms.
Outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected. Early Saturday
morning, a strong cold front will bring gusty northwest winds to
the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Critical fire weather conditions will continue into this evening
for northeast Wyoming. Cold front will cross the area
tonight...with gusty northwest winds for Saturday. Minimum
relative humidity will drop below 20 percent for northeast Wyoming
and much of western South Dakota.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for SDZ260>262-264.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening
     for SDZ014-032-043-044-046-047-049.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012-013-
     025>027-030-031-041-042-072>074.

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for WYZ259-297>299.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ259-297-298.

&&

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...7

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
529 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

SDZ001-002-012-013-025-026-031-072-073-231300-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-
STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-
529 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 98 TO 102 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS REACHING
35 TO 45 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ024-028-029-WYZ057-231300-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
WYOMING BLACK HILLS-
529 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

WYZ054>056-058-071-231300-
NORTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-
NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
529 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 900 PM THIS EVENING
FOR VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...GUSTY WINDS...AND DRY LIGHTNING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ014-032-043-044-046-047-049-231300-
ZIEBACH-HAAKON-JACKSON-BENNETT-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-
529 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016 /629 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 100 TO 107 THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SDZ027-030-041-042-074-231300-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-OGLALA LAKOTA-
HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-
529 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 98 TO 102 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN SUNDAY...BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
205 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

SDZ041-222045-
FALL RIVER SD-
205 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWESTERN FALL RIVER COUNTY...

AT 205 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF PROVO...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF EDGEMONT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PROVO...ARDMORE AND RUMFORD.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4300 10397 4305 10405 4321 10405 4329 10397
      4303 10348 4299 10363
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 227DEG 13KT 4308 10392

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
242 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 W EDGEMONT           43.30N 104.02W
07/22/2016  M53 MPH          FALL RIVER         SD   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
251 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

SDZ027-041-222115-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS SD-FALL RIVER SD-
251 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL FALL RIVER COUNTY...

AT 250 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM EDGEMONT TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF OELRICHS.
MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EDGEMONT...OELRICHS...PROVO...RUMFORD AND ANGOSTURA RESERVOIR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR ANGOSTURA RESERVOIR...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
10 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW! DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4307 10374 4321 10395 4348 10374 4312 10301
      4300 10324 4300 10352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 220DEG 12KT 4330 10385 4299 10328

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
319 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

SDZ041-222200-
FALL RIVER SD-
319 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHEASTERN FALL RIVER COUNTY...

AT 319 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES EAST OF ARDMORE...OR 24 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EDGEMONT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OELRICHS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4309 10364 4326 10329 4301 10308 4300 10316
      4300 10357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 242DEG 20KT 4306 10348

JC