Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
249 PM MST SAT AUG 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Enough moisture will remain across the area for isolated
to scattered thunderstorms this evening, but then some drying from
the west will limit thunderstorm development early next week. A
return of deeper moisture will then bring an increasing chance of
thunderstorms the second half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continued to develop in the
mountains across southeast Arizona early this afternoon. Recent wind
profiler observations from Ft. Huachuca showed the steering flow
increasing and becoming more north to northeasterly. Thus, the
scenario of storms developing in the sky islands and along the
eastern Rim into White Mountains and tracking southwestward toward
the lower deserts still looked on track. In fact, radar and
satellite imagery were showing some isolated thunderstorms
developing across the Tohono O'Oham Nation west of Tucson. That
said, conditions were setting up for an active evening thunderstorm
wise across southeast Arizona. Otherwise, models continued to
suggest a drying trend early this coming week as the upper high
builds overhead from the west. This shift in the upper high's
position will limit the thunderstorms activity and result in warmer
daytime temperatures. Models showed the upper high shifting eastward
as a low pressure trough deepens over the Intermountain West around
the middle of next week. This results in a deeper moisture fetch
along with more favorable upper dynamics for an upswing in
thunderstorm activity the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/00Z.
SCT clouds at 9-12k ft AGL with SHRA/TSRA well into the evening.
TSRA likely to affect all the terminals later today, mainly 13/23z
thru 14/02z. The stronger TSRA may produce wind gusts to around 45
kts with local MVFR conds.  Skies clearing overnight with much less
SHRA/TSRA expected.  Otherwise, sfc winds generally variable at less
than 10 kts except becoming ELY at 8-12 kts east to KTUS. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the
evening hours with a potential for thunderstorms to develop over the
White Mountains and push southwestward with strong winds. In
general, storms will move to the south or southwest. Sunday into
early next week will be drier and warmer with less convection, with
moisture increasing again from Wednesday onward. 20-ft winds will
generally be easterly at 10-15 mph during the daytime, and follow
terrain at less than 10 mph at night.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
313 PM MST SAT AUG 13 2016

AZZ508-512-132300-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING
DOUGLAS/WILLCOX-CHIRICAHUA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING CHIRICAHUA NATIONAL
MONUMENT-
313 PM MST SAT AUG 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MST...

AT 313 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTH OF DOUGLAS...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DOUGLAS...BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT...PIRTLEVILLE AND MCNEAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3165 10967 3159 10930 3134 10939 3133 10983
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 012DEG 20KT 3146 10959

CERNIGLIA