Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
218 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering moisture will keep showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through Saturday. A drying trend is then expected
through early next week before a wet period arrives mid to late
week.

&&

.Discussion...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop through the afternoon and into the early
evening. In the past hour the storms have begun to transition from
mainly over the mountains to valley locations. This trend will
continue. Plenty of moisture exists to produce efficient rainfall
production and significant rainfall rates. Recent rainfall over
the past several days has also enhanced the risk for localized
flooding issues. The threat for storms will linger into the
overnight hours for areas mainly near the International and New
Mexico border.

Satellite and observational trends agree with model output
suggesting that a gradual drying trend is underway. This will
continue into the weekend and early next week as a broadscale
trough over the western US brushes monsoonal moisture into mainly
New Mexico and Texas. Shower coverage should wane a bit more each
day Saturday through Tuesday.

Further out there is suggestion from the models that remnant
moisture from Tropical Storm Earl will work its way across Mexico
and northward toward the area late Wednesday into Friday. If this
pans out a wet period could ensue during this time frame.
Tremendous uncertainty exists on the exact track of Earl remnants
as the system crosses the continent. In any event, stay tuned as
the potential event draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
Scattered coverage of SHRA/TSRA with bases of 6-8k ft AGL will
continue through 06/03z. Expect mtn obscurations and isold MVFR
cigs/vsbys in +RA in valleys. Clouds decreasing and SHRA/TSRA ending
in most areas by 06/06z but may linger near NM line through 06/12z.
TSRA will develop again Saturday aftn mainly east of KOLS-KSAD-KSOW
but cannot be ruled out vcnty of KTUS. Sfc winds generally 10 kts or
less outside of TSRA. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Moisture will be gradually decreasing from
west to east this weekend into Monday although thunderstorm chances
will continue in Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties through the
period. At the same time, an increase in afternoon temperatures and
decrease in humidity levels will occur. The return of moisture and
increased thunderstorm chances area wide are foreseen during the
middle of next week. Longer range models are in fair agreement that
another period of modest drying could occur after that, by next
weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Discussion...Cantin
Aviation/Fire Weather...Drozd

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
108 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016

AZZ502-504-505-052100-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE
PARK-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS-
108 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MST...

AT 107 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18
MILES NORTHEAST OF KAKA...OR 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CASA
GRANDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELOY...WHITE HORSE PASS...NORTH KOMELIK...COCKLEBUR...KOHATK...
CHUICHU AND JACKRABBIT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3268 11215 3272 11215 3272 11205 3276 11205
      3277 11188 3279 11188 3279 11178 3277 11178
      3276 11174 3273 11173 3273 11167 3276 11161
      3273 11152 3267 11146 3241 11195 3267 11221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 239DEG 16KT 3263 11204

CANTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016

AZZ502-505-052145-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE
PARK-TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS-
200 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MST...

AT 159 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ARIZONA CITY...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF CASA GRANDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

HEAVY RAINFALL...DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELOY...WHITE HORSE PASS...COCKLEBUR...CHUICHU AND PICACHO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3281 11144 3273 11137 3251 11176 3276 11205
      3277 11188 3279 11188 3279 11178 3276 11178
      3276 11174 3273 11174 3273 11167 3276 11161
      3281 11155 3285 11152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 234DEG 15KT 3266 11171

CANTIN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
242 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016

AZZ506-514-052230-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE-SANTA CATALINA
AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN-
242 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MST...

AT 241 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SAN MANUEL...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF MAMMOTH. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH A SLOW DRIFT NORTHWARD.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAMMOTH...SAN MANUEL...ORACLE AND CAMPO BONITO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3277 11071 3277 11051 3252 11047 3252 11080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 184DEG 3KT 3266 11065

GL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
349 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016

AZZ504-507-513-052330-
TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL-DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON-
349 PM MST FRI AUG 5 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MST...

AT 348 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SAHUARITA...OR 10 MILES EAST OF GREEN VALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAHUARITA...CORONA DE TUCSON AND VAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 11074 3181 11095 3205 11092 3204 11064
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 209DEG 9KT 3188 11083

MEYER