Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 19, 2016Cochise County, Arizona

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 19, 2016, 5:28 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2016, 5:28 PM MST (00:28 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2016, 6:15 PM MST
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ

County Cochise County, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KDMA), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 126 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 92 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -165 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2883 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

486 
WWUS85 KTWC 200028
SPSTWC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
528 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016
 
AZZ508-513-200115-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING
DOUGLAS/WILLCOX-DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON-
528 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM MST...

AT 526 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 31 MILES NORTHEAST OF BISBEE...MOVING
WEST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUNIZONA AND PEARCE-SUNSITES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 10991 3200 10988 3195 10950 3174 10954
      3174 10955 3173 10955 3174 10956 3174 10957
      3173 10956 3172 10957
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 093DEG 14KT 3181 10960 

$$

FRENCH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 19, 2:45 PM MST, 2 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 2:45 PM MST, 2 hours 43 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will occur again Wednesday. A decrease in coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will then prevail Thursday into this
weekend. Expect hotter daytime temperatures Thursday through
Saturday followed by a minor moderation in temperatures early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were
occurring generally across central/eastern Pima County, southern
Pinal County and Santa Cruz County at this time. Other isolated
showers and thunderstorms were also occurring further east across
northern Graham County, and the White Mountains. The ongoing
showers/tstms will move mainly northwestward during the next few
hours, with the main threat being locally heavy rainfall and brief
gusty winds. There is still the potential for blowing dust by this
evening along the Interstate 10 corridor northwest of Tucson to
Phoenix. Various mesoscale models suggest that showers/tstms will
this evening mainly across eastern sections as the ongoing
showers/tstms decrease markedly in coverage/intensity.

Thus, the official forecast continues with scattered showers/
tstms area-wide this evening followed by a slight chance of
showers/tstms late tonight into Wednesday morning. Would not be
surprised that precip-free conditions occur across much of the area
late tonight as has generally been the case the past few nights.
However, there will still be enough moisture to support the
aforementioned scenario of a slight chance of showers/tstms.

Various mesoscale models depict similar coverage of showers/tstms
Wednesday. Have continued with scattered mainly afternoon/evening
showers/tstms again Wednesday. The 19/12Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC were similar
versus their respective solutions in depicting a gradual daily
decrease in showers/tstms to begin Thursday and continue into this
weekend. Given the progged easterly mid-level flow, precip-free
conditions area-wide should not occur as happened earlier this
month. However, moisture should remain sufficient for isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Thursday
through next Tuesday.

A warming trend will occur Wednesday through Friday as heights/
thicknesses increase due to a consolidation of an upper high over
southern California. Expect some minor moderation in daytime temps
early next week, but daytime temps will remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 21/00Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA this evening followed by isolated -SHRA across
the area late tonight into Wednesday morning. Expect scattered
-TSRA/-SHRA to return Wednesday afternoon. Brief wind gusts to 45
kts and MVFR conditions will occur with stronger TSRA. Surface wind
will generally be variable in direction less than 12 kts thru the
period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Adequate moisture for scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms again Wednesday. A drying trend will then lead
to reduced coverage of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into this
weekend. Moisture will remain adequate for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms early next week. Outside of gusty thunderstorm
outflows, 20-foot winds will be terrain driven and mostly less than
15 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Francis

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 3:09 PM MST, 2 hours 19 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
309 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZZ504>506-514-192300-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE
PARK-TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN
VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING
KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE-SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
MOUNT LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN-
309 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MST...

AT 306 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING SEVERAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER TANQUE VERDE...OR 10 MILES EAST OF TUCSON...AS
WELL AS STORMS FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 10. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ALSO
EXPECT SOME BLOWING DUST TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH THE TUCSON METRO FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS...SO
EXPECT SOME PONDING OF WATER IN THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TUCSON...ORO VALLEY...MARANA...FLOWING WELLS...TANQUE VERDE...
DREXEL-ALVERNON...CASAS ADOBES...TORTOLITA...LITTLETOWN...
AVRA VALLEY...SOUTH TUCSON...CATALINA FOOTHILLS...
MOUNT LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN...PICTURE ROCKS...CATALINA...RITA RANCH...
ORACLE JUNCTION...DAVIS-MONTHAN AIR FORCE BASE...
DOVE MOUNTAIN AND SAGUARO NATIONAL PARK EAST.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3239 11134 3268 11104 3239 11063 3239 11064
      3237 11063 3237 11064 3236 11063 3236 11065
      3231 11059 3227 11056 3226 11055 3201 11071
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 138DEG 16KT 3225 11076

MOLLERE

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 3:26 PM MST, 2 hours 2 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
326 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZZ505-506-192315-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE
PARK-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE-
326 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PINAL COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
MST...

AT 323 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PINAL COUNTY AND MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN
ADDITION...SOME BLOWING DUSTS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAYDEN...WINKELMAN...KEARNY...MAMMOTH...ORACLE...
ARAVAIPA CREEK PRESERVE...KELVIN...DUDLEYVILLE AND BIOSPHERE 2.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3299 11079 3299 11077 3304 11072 3307 11072
      3308 11071 3308 11069 3310 11068 3281 11055
      3258 11075 3258 11076 3257 11076 3252 11080
      3253 11080 3254 11083 3293 11140 3325 11095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 158DEG 6KT 3285 11069

MOLLERE

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 4:06 PM MST, 1 hour 22 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
406 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZZ502>505-515-200000-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES-SOUTH
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK-TUCSON
METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL-TOHONO O'ODHAM
NATION INCLUDING SELLS-BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KITT PEAK-
406 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL AND
NORTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MST...

AT 404 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MARANA...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. IN
ADDITION, BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE
TO THE NORTHWEST.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARANA...AVRA VALLEY...THREE POINTS...TUCSON ESTATES...
FRIENDLY CORNERS...SAN PEDRO...QUEENS WELL...PAN TAK...PICACHO...
SANTA ROSA RANCH...SILVER BELL...RED ROCK...PICTURE ROCKS...
SIL NAGGIA...PICACHO PEAK AND SAGUARO NATIONAL PARK WEST.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3234 11106 3188 11141 3236 11201 3280 11150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 146DEG 18KT 3238 11121

MOLLERE

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 4:19 PM MST, 1 hour 9 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
419 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZZ506-200000-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ-
419 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY

UNTIL 500 PM MST

AT 418 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTH OF CHRISTMAS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN PINAL
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3311 11052 3308 11068 3309 11069 3312 11066
      3311 11066 3311 11065 3314 11064 3313 11059
      3316 11055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 345DEG 3KT 3320 11071

MP

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 4:20 PM MST, 1 hour 8 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
420 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZZ506-200000-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ-
420 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY

UNTIL 500 PM MST

AT 420 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTH OF CHRISTMAS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN PINAL
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3311 11052 3308 11068 3309 11069 3312 11066
      3311 11066 3311 11065 3314 11064 3313 11059
      3316 11055
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 345DEG 3KT 3320 11071

MP

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 5:28 PM MST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
528 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

AZZ508-513-200115-
EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY BELOW 5000 FEET INCLUDING
DOUGLAS/WILLCOX-DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS
INCLUDING BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON-
528 PM MST TUE JUL 19 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 615
PM MST...

AT 526 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 31 MILES NORTHEAST OF BISBEE...MOVING
WEST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG
WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUNIZONA AND PEARCE-SUNSITES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3173 10991 3200 10988 3195 10950 3174 10954
      3174 10955 3173 10955 3174 10956 3174 10957
      3173 10956 3172 10957
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 093DEG 14KT 3181 10960

FRENCH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 5:58 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Cochise	37 min
Jul 19, 6:02 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	118 min
Jul 19, 6:10 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	65 min
Jul 19, 7:19 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Cochise	116 min
Jul 19, 8:55 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	TWC	Graham	110 min
Jul 20, 1:47 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC		43 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.