Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Tucson, AZ

090 
WWUS55 KTWC 041927
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1227 PM MST FRI NOV 4 2016

AZC009-041935-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0062.000000T0000Z-161104T1930Z/
GRAHAM-
1227 PM MST FRI NOV 4 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1230 PM MST...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF SAFFORD
HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES A THREAT.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3282 10967 3276 10987 3300 11002 3308 10972
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 161DEG 11KT 3300 10982 

$$

MEYER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1021 AM MST Fri Nov 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur east of
Tucson today. A chance of showers exists Friday night mainly near
the New Mexico border, then dry conditions will prevail this weekend
and into the middle of next week. Expect near normal daytime
temperatures Friday, then above average temperatures will return
this weekend and next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Our low is currently lifting slowly north and
northeast through Pima and Pinal counties. It should be near the
northern AZ/NM border sometime tonight. As this happens, our best
area of dynamics and moisture will be northeast of Tucson the
remainder of the day, with special focus on Graham and Greenlee
counties for strong storms and locally heavy rain due to training
echoes. We made some adjustments bumping QPF values values up in
that area. Otherwise this system should be out of our hair by
tomorrow morning.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/18Z.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly northeast of
KTUS with clearing from the south and west as a low lifts out of
the area. MVFR ceilings/visibilities near thunderstorms with KSAD
most vulnerable. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, surface wind
generally less than 12 kts thru the forecast period. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms today,
mainly northeast of Tucson across Graham and Greenlee counties. A
slight chance of showers continues near the New Mexico border
Saturday, with dry conditions returning area-wide on Sunday and
continuing through next Friday. 20-foot winds will generally be less
than 15 mph, except for some afternoon gustiness.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Radar continued to detect some lingering
showers and a few thunderstorms early this morning in eastern
Pinal and Graham counties. The upper low responsible for this
activity was centered over southern Arizona in the vicinity of
Sells. Latest models continued to track the upper low northeast
today with it weakening as it moves into the four corners region
on Saturday. Until then, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms can expected east of Tucson today with rain chances
limited to the White Mountains on Saturday. Thereafter, a ridge of
high pressure aloft nudges into the region early next week. This
feature will bring dry conditions along with daytime temperatures
rebounding to above normal readings.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Meyer

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1124 AM MST FRI NOV 4 2016

AZZ509>511-041915-
UPPER GILA RIVER AND ARAVAIPA VALLEYS INCLUDING CLIFTON/SAFFORD-WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES INCLUDING HANNAGAN
MEADOW-GALIURO AND PINALENO MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT GRAHAM-
1124 AM MST FRI NOV 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 1215
PM MST...

AT 1122 AM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHWEST OF SAFFORD NEAR PIMA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

3/4 INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAFFORD...THATCHER...PIMA...FORT THOMAS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3277 10962 3267 10982 3308 11008 3317 10977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1822Z 161DEG 11KT 3290 10984

MEYER