Blowing Dust Advisory 8, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
900 AM MST MON MAY 16 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will move south into the desert
southwest by midweek. Relatively cooler temperatures will occur
through mid week, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms from
Tucson eastward Wednesday. A chance of showers continues across the
White mountains Thursday, then dry conditions with warmer
temperatures for the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...No surprises this morning, with the 12z KTWC sounding
coming in with 1/4 inch precipitable water.  It also suggests a high
around 89 or 90 for TIA.  Steady as she goes.  The system digging
through the central Great Basin is also still on track.  Please see
the previous discussion below for additional details.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/18Z.
Clear skies and VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast
period. Surface wind less than 10 kts thru 16/14z...then increasing
surface wind. Sly/swly surface wind at 15-25 kts and gusts to 23-33
kts by 16/19z...with the strongest surface wind east of KTUS in the
vicinity of KALK, KFHU and especially KDUG. Surface wind diminishing
aft 17/02z and generally less than 10 kts by 17/05z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF ammendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER.... Breezy to windy conditions will persist today
across the far southeastern corner of southeast Arizona...roughly
southeast of a line from the Huachuca mountains to the Chiricahua
mountains in Cochise county. Critical fire weather thresholds may be
briefly exceeded in this area this afternoon. However, widespread
conditions are not expected and therefore no fire weather headlines
will be in effect. Less wind is expected elsewhere across the
forecast area today, along with dry and cooler conditions.

There will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
into Thursday, mainly northeast and east of the Tucson metro area.
The best chance of precipitation will be in the White mountains.
Some afternoon breeziness is expected through the upcoming week,
mainly on Tuesday and then again Friday into Sunday of next weekend.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Breezy conditions again today across far southeast
Arizona. Otherwise...mostly clear skies and cooler afternoon
temperatures can be anticipated. Models continued to track a low
pressure system south into northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Moisture
associated with this system appeared to be limited but enough to
warrant the mention of a few showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into
Thursday. The best chance of showers will be across northern and
eastern sections of the state. Cooler air will also accompany this
system with high temperatures lowering to near normal readings this
week. Thereafter, medium range models showed a ridge of high
pressure building over the desert southwest followed by another
storm system which will bring breezy to windy conditions this
weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

Meyer

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