Blowing Dust Advisory 7, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
935 AM MST SUN MAY 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect gusty southwest winds this afternoon. Otherwise,
dry conditions with a cooling trend will prevail through Monday.
There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms northeast of
Tucson Tuesday into Thursday. Dry conditions with a warming trend
will then occur Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies prevail across much of southeast Arizona
this morning. The exceptions were near the New Mexico border and
generally southwest of Tucson where scattered cirriform clouds were
depicted via IR/visible satellite imagery. Dewpoints at lower
elevations valid 16Z ranged from the mid 20s-mid 30s, and these
temps were 5-15 degs lower versus 24 hours ago. Surface temps for
most locales were averaging about 5 degs cooler versus this time
Saturday. 15/12Z KTWC sounding total precip water value of 0.36 inch
was 0.45 inch lower versus 24 hours ago. The bulk of the drying
occurred in the surface-500 mb layer. Surface winds valid 9 AM MST
were sely/sly at 10-20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. 15/12Z upper
air plots depicted a low pressure system centered over ern Oregon
with a mid-level trough axis extending swd into srn California.
Moderate to strong swly/wly flow aloft prevailed across SE AZ.

A tight mid-level gradient will translate into gusty southwest
surface winds this afternoon. A wind advisory is in effect until 7
PM MST this evening for locales southeast of Tucson, or mainly near
the International border adjacent Cochise/eastern Santa Cruz
counties. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail thru Monday night as
deeper moisture is shunted well east of this forecast area in
response to strengthening wly winds aloft. Still some gusty swly/wly
winds Monday afternoon, but speeds are forecast to remain below
wind advisory criteria.

The upper trough will deepen over the Great Basin/Intermountain
west/southwestern CONUS Tue-Wed. Although the bulk of deeper moisture
is progged to be north and east of this forecast area, there appears
to be enough moisture to justify at least a slight chance of
showers/tstms east of Tucson Tue-Wed night. A drying trend should
commence Thur as the mid-level trough axis moves east of the area.
Still enough moisture for a chance of showers/tstms across the White
mountains Thur. Dry conditions are then expected Thur night-Sat under
wly/swly flow aloft. Breezy to windy conditions may occur Sat as
the mid-level gradient tightens ahead of a deepening upper low
pressure system over the Pacific NW/Great Basin region.

A cooling trend will occur into Tue, then daytime temps will average
about 5 degs or so below normal Tue-Wed. A warming trend is forecast
to prevail Thur-Sat, with high temps trending a few degs above
normal by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/18Z.
Clear skies to scattered clouds above 25k ft msl will prevail into
Tuesday morning. Surface wind into this evening will be sly/swly at
15-30 kts with gusts to around 45 kts. Surface wind will diminish to
less than 10 kts most locales around midnight tonight and continue
into Tuesday morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
ammendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the southern
portions of Fire Weather Zones 151 and 152, as well as the Galiuro
and Pinaleno mountains. The combination of strong and gusty southwest
winds, low relative humidity and a high fire danger rating will
produce critical fire weather conditions.

Dry but cooler conditions will prevail Monday, followed by a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Thursday, mainly
northeast and east of the Tucson metro area. The best chance of
precipitation will be in the White mountains. Some afternoon
breeziness is also likely through the upcoming week, with the
strongest winds along the International border.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ151-152.

    Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for AZZ507-508-512-513.

&&

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Francis