Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
320 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
As in previous days...there is a weakly sheared unstable airmass
in place...with scattered thunderstorms developing again across
the area. The main concern with these storms is strong wind gusts
and of course lightning. Any individual storm will be short lived
and overall coverage will diminish this evening. Winds will remain
light over the area...with lows overnight falling into the
mid/upper 60s in some locations.

A weak cold front will approach the area tomorrow...bringing
increasing clouds and a better chance for showers/thunderstorms.
Temperatures will have a chance to rise into the 90s across
western AR and SE OK...while the northern portions of our area
will have clouds and precipitation earlier in the day. Models
hint that storms may persist into Wed night/overnight Thu across
SE OK and wrn AR so left higher chances for rain there. By
Thursday...airmass will be a bit cooler and drier. Mid level ridge
begins to build back by Friday into Saturday...with hot and humid
conditions expected by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  69  87 /  40  50  30  30
FSM   72  92  72  88 /  30  40  20  30
MLC   72  92  71  87 /  30  30  30  40
BVO   67  85  65  85 /  50  50  20  20
FYV   67  85  66  83 /  30  50  20  20
BYV   69  87  68  82 /  30  50  20  10
MKO   70  88  68  88 /  30  50  20  30
MIO   71  85  68  84 /  40  50  20  10
F10   72  90  71  86 /  30  50  30  40
HHW   73  94  74  88 /  30  20  30  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1253 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1253 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ADDITIONAL AREA...ISOLATED SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ALSO...FOR LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THIS WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GREATER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40...THEN SLIDING SOUTH OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. THE SEVERE RISK
SHOULD REMAIN LOW.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE WEEKEND...ENDING STORM CHANCES.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-302000-
CRAWFORD AR-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN...
SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

AT 230 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF VAN BUREN...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FORT SMITH...                     VAN BUREN...
ROLAND...                         MOFFETT...
FIGURE FIVE...                    DORA...
SHIBLEY...                        FURRY...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 40 IN ARKANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 7.
 INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 323 AND 328.
 INTERSTATE 540 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.

LAT...LON 3535 9443 3538 9443 3537 9445 3538 9447
      3537 9449 3535 9448 3534 9449 3533 9452
      3552 9455 3555 9432 3539 9427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 075DEG 6KT 3547 9439

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