Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
232 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Surface front currently stretches from eastern KS into
southwestern OK...with an unstable and weakly capped atmosphere
located across our region. Have seen isolated weak convection
develop earlier in the terrain areas and most recently near the
frontal boundary across northern OK. Convection will eventually
expand in coverage from eastern KS into the TX panhandle...with
areas northwest of I-44 having the best chances of seeing late
afternoon/evening storms. A strong/severe storm will be
possible...along with a few spots of locally heavy rainfall.

The weak front will likely lift back north of the area by
Friday...but still could see widely scattered areas of
showers/thunderstorms as weak impulses traverse the region in the
southwesterly flow aloft.

Mid-level flow weakens over the weekend and into next week as the
main belt of westerlies lifts north. Expect an extended period of
near seasonal temperatures with mainly diurnal chances of showers
and thunderstorms.

Still plenty of model uncertainty concerning potential track of
tropical system into the Gulf of Mexico next week. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  92  72  93 /  30  30  20  30
FSM   74  91  72  92 /  20  50  20  30
MLC   72  90  70  92 /  20  40  20  30
BVO   69  91  68  92 /  50  30  20  20
FYV   69  86  67  88 /  20  50  20  30
BYV   70  85  68  88 /  30  50  20  30
MKO   72  90  70  91 /  20  40  20  30
MIO   70  89  69  91 /  30  50  20  30
F10   72  89  71  91 /  20  30  20  30
HHW   73  89  71  92 /  10  50  20  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1257 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR A STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE
CONCERN. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EVEN NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES LIFT NORTH OUT OF TEXAS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR-MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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