Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1136 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 18z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
High pressure aloft will maintain VFR conditions thru the period
at the TAF sites. Afternoon thunder chances too low to mention in
the TAFs, but will monitor. Some light MVFR fog possible around
dawn at KFYV based on persistence.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 925 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

H5 ridging still in place over the region today, downstream from
troughing over the Western CONUS. Decreasing deep layer moisture
forecast in the models suggests that convective coverage will be
lower than yesterday. The latest HRRRX/NAM/ECMWF all suggest that
convection should be isolated at best, and confined to Western AR
and SE OK. The current forecast has this handled well. H85 temps
are forecast to be slightly warmer than yesterday and thus high
temps should be a couple degrees or so warmer than yesterday as
well. The latest forecast also agrees well with the 2m NAM12 temps
as well. No changes planned to the temp forecast and thus the
headlines will be kept intact as well. Relief is coming though, as
the Western CONUS trough migrates east and pushes a front thru the
region this weekend.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 632 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Patchy fog across NW AR may result in brief MVFR vsbys at KFYV.
Otherwise...VFR elements will prevail at all sites through the TAF
period. Thunder chances will once again remain too low today for TAF
inclusion.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 AM CDT THU AUG 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
594-595DM upper ridge remains in control across the forecast
area...with yet another day of excessive heat and humidity in
store. Given the current heat index forecast...will go ahead and
expand the Excessive Heat Warning into west central AR...although
some localized relief may occur with widely scattered afternoon
storms.

The upper ridge will finally begin to break down/shift south by
Friday as a broad upper trof passes through the northern/central
Plains. Bulk of operational models continue to focus highest
PoPs/QPF on the Friday night/Saturday time-frame as a cold front
slowly sags south through the region. Widespread severe weather
doesn't appear likely...but some locally heavy rain should occur.

Considered additional heat headlines for parts of the area on
Friday...but confidence is quite low given the uncertainty in
cloud cover/precipitation/outflow during this period. Day shift
can take another look.

The forecast remains very unsettled for the weekend and into much
of next week...especially across portions of southeast OK and
western AR. The surface boundary should settle just to our
south...with a persistent upper weakness and impressive moisture
axis (PWs at or above 2") remaining across the southeastern
portions of the forecast area. Could see several periods of
showers/thunderstorms through the weekend and into next
week...with additional locally heavy rainfall possible. Cloud
cover/rainfall will hold temps down...with highs mainly in the 80s
through most of the extended forecast.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ058-063-068-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ049-053>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  78  96  74 /  10  10  50  70
FSM   99  78  99  78 /  20  10  30  60
MLC   99  78 100  75 /  10  10  30  60
BVO   99  73  93  71 /  10  20  60  70
FYV   94  72  95  72 /  20  10  40  70
BYV   95  75  92  72 /  20  10  40  70
MKO   99  76  97  75 /  10  10  30  70
MIO   97  76  94  72 /  10  10  60  70
F10   99  78  98  74 /  10  10  30  70
HHW  100  78 100  77 /  20  10  30  50

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ058-063-068-069.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-
     053>057-059>062-064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-
     020-029.

&&

AVIATION...30

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