Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
242 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon, diurnal convection has once again developed within the
past couple of hours generally along and south of Highway 412.
Much like yesterday, a small potential for damaging downburst
winds will exist with the strongest storms, but widespread severe
weather remains unlikely. This activity will diminish with the
sunset, with only the potential for isolated thunderstorms
continuing in this same region past 00z. Most of the area should
remain dry through the rest of the night.

Both Wednesday and Thursday, continued hot and humid conditions,
with highs pushing triple digits in a few spots, will prevail as
the upper level ridge continues to build into the region. The
main afternoon thunderstorm potential on both days will shift into
areas east of Highway 75, nearest the moisture axis. Heat index
values will exceed 105 in most of eastern Oklahoma and west
central Arkansas, and a Heat Advisory will be continued for
Wednesday and issued for Thursday in these areas.

By Friday, some relief from the heat will begin to arrive, as a
strong trough currently in the western United States moves into
the Plains states. The trough will bring a fairly strong cold
front through the region. Thunderstorm chances will increase
during the day Friday, with the best chance for widespread rains
likely to be Friday night and into Saturday. The front may stall
some, prolonging the good rain chances across parts of far
southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas through the remainder
of the weekend. Below normal temperatures will follow the front,
with highs largely in the 80s Saturday through Monday and perhaps
even longer than that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  98  78  99 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   76  98  78  98 /  20  30  10  30
MLC   76  98  78  99 /  20  20  10  10
BVO   72  97  73  98 /  20  10  10  10
FYV   71  93  73  94 /  20  30  10  30
BYV   72  92  73  94 /  20  30  10  30
MKO   74  98  76  98 /  20  20  10  10
MIO   74  96  75  97 /  20  20  10  10
F10   76  98  78  99 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   76  98  77 100 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>068-
     070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION... A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION TODAY WILL FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HEAT OF
THE DAY. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONALLY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES RANGING BETWEEN 100 AND
107 WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS WELL. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THAT
TIME. BY THE WEEKEND...A BREAKDOWN IN THE CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL IN TURN
INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND WILL
OFFER AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT STRETCH OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
304 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

OKZ072-076-092030-
SEQUOYAH OK-LE FLORE OK-
304 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH AND
NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 304 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SPIRO...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
POCOLA...                         MULDROW...
SPIRO...                          PANAMA...
CAMERON...                        SHADY POINT...
ROCK ISLAND...                    SCULLYVILLE...
BRADEN...                         COTTONWOOD...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA NEAR MILE MARKER 322.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 9446 3511 9467 3535 9480 3541 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 166DEG 11KT 3520 9459

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

OKZ062-068-092130-
CHEROKEE OK-MAYES OK-
405 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MAYES AND CENTRAL
CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

AT 405 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF TAHLEQUAH...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
TAHLEQUAH...                      HULBERT...
PEGGS...                          LOST CITY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3583 9489 3579 9511 3604 9522 3604 9521
      3607 9521 3607 9524 3610 9525 3616 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 167DEG 19KT 3589 9502