Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
336 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Dewpoints have remained higher than expected this afternoon, which
has resulted in the need for a heat advisory for parts of
northeast Oklahoma. Some drying of the low level airmass is
expected over the next couple days, resulting in more marginal
conditions for an advisory, so will hold off on any heat headlines
after this evening.

Ioslated showers and thunderstorms are developing this afternoon.
This activity will dissipate by sunset, but will need a pre-first
period mention to cover the ongoing activity. Isolated diurnal
convection will remain possible just about any day this upcoming
week, especially over the favored terrain areas, but coverage will
be to low to include in the forecast at this time.

The main story over the next week will be the heat. An upper ridge
will remain over the center of the country all week. Low level
thermal progs suggest a slow warming trend over the next few days,
which will be aided by the decreasing dewpoints, followed by near
steady-state temperatures late this week through next weekend. The
GFS has backed off on any frontal intrusions next weekend, and
there is no real reason for the decrease in daytime high
temperatures shown by its MOS guidance other than a trend towards
climatology at the longer time ranges. The more steady-state
ECMWF MOS has the right idea.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  98  77  99 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   76  98  74  99 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   77  97  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   75  97  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   73  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   74  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   75  97  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   76  95  74  96 /  10  10  10  10
F10   77  97  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   76  99  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>057-059>062-
     064>067-070>075.

AR...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

OKZ072-312115-
SEQUOYAH OK-
347 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SEQUOYAH COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM CDT...

AT 347 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF SALLISAW...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
SALLISAW...                       GANS...
BRUSHY LAKE STATE PARK...         MC KEY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 299 AND
313.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3537 9466 3535 9483 3536 9483 3537 9485
      3536 9486 3535 9489 3537 9490 3538 9489
      3540 9490 3540 9492 3545 9495 3558 9478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 250DEG 10KT 3544 9483

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
414 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

OKZ069-072-312145-
ADAIR OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
414 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SEQUOYAH AND SOUTHERN
ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 413 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SALLISAW...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. A SECOND STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORM WAS
LOCATED EAST OF BUNCH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
SALLISAW...                       MARBLE CITY...
BRUSHY...                         BUNCH...
BRUSHY LAKE STATE PARK...         MC KEY...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 298 AND
312.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3535 9478 3545 9496 3564 9484 3564 9481
      3569 9481 3580 9474 3566 9448 3565 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 213DEG 14KT 3547 9482

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
418 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

OKZ066-071-312145-
MCINTOSH OK-OKMULGEE OK-
418 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE AND
NORTHWESTERN MCINTOSH COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 418 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HENRYETTA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
HENRYETTA...                      MORRIS...
DEWAR...                          SCHULTER...
GRAYSON...                        HOFFMAN...
STIDHAM...                        LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK...
HITCHITA...                       PIERCE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 233 AND
257.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3553 9597 3564 9580 3540 9558 3527 9596
      3530 9598 3538 9598 3538 9604 3544 9609
      3545 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 238DEG 16KT 3541 9596

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