Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
327 AM CDT WED JUL 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
40-45kt southwesterly low-level jet per local VWP along
with decent overnight CAPE has maintained a long-track
MCS across KS. Radar trends show this activity is tracking
east-southeast...and should begin to impact our far
northern OK counties toward 09-10Z. Main impact will be
gusty/potentially damaging winds along the leading edge
of the complex. HRRR has remained quite consistent with
this evolution over the past several runs...with the bulk
of the activity exiting our forecast area toward 14-15Z.

With the very mild start to the day and expected post-MCS
clearing...we'll see temps bounce well back into 90s again
today...with upper 90s likely across parts of northeast OK.
Mid/upper 70s dewpoints will once again result in dangerous
heat index values areawide...and current configuration of
heat advisory/excessive heat warning will be left as is.

Little if any change expected into Thursday...if anything it
might be a degree or two hotter than today. Will expand the
heat advisory into Thursday...but have held off on an
excessive heat warning at this time. Later shifts can
re-evaluate if needed.

Several weak disturbances along the northern periphery of the
broad upper ridge will eventually allow a weak cold front to
dip into parts of northeast OK and northwest AR...with
thunderstorm chances ramping up later Friday/Friday night and
Saturday. Have maintained low PoP for the remainder of the
weekend and into early next week as weak shortwaves continue
to traverse the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  80  98  80 /  20  10  10  10
FSM   96  77  97  77 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   94  78  95  78 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   97  78  98  77 /  20  10  10  20
FYV   92  75  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
BYV   93  76  93  76 /  30  10  10  10
MKO   94  77  96  77 /  20  10  10  10
MIO   95  79  96  77 /  40  10  10  20
F10   95  77  95  78 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   95  76  95  77 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-058-059-062>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ054>057-060-061.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18

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