Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

July 1, 2016Washington County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Jul 1, 2016, 2:41 PM CDT for Washington County, Arkansas. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 1, 2016, 2:41 PM CDT (19:41 UTC)
Expired: Jul 1, 2016, 3:15 PM CDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Washington County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 181 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -92 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 832 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 92 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 1, 11:51 AM CDT, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 11:51 AM CDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1151 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period, with any
category reductions restricted to thunderstorm activity. Scattered
thunderstorms may affect mainly the NE OK and far NW AR terminals
this afternoon, with potential continuing to be covered with a
VCTS mention due to areal coverage expected. Winds will shift from
a northerly direction to a southerly direction by tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 952 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
The early morning convection in northeast Oklahoma to the west of
Highway 75 continues on its downward trend that began within the
past hour or two, with generally light to occasionally moderate
rain remaining. Additional thunderstorms should develop along and
north of the boundary that currently stretches across east central
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas, with a very limited
potential for strong winds in the strongest storms. The
experimental HRRR is handling the expected conditions fairly well
to this point. Changes to the POP grids this morning have been to
show a lull in the activity for the late morning hours, with a
previoualy forecast upswing during the afternoon. No other
significant changes have been made to the going forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 623 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread east and
southeast across parts of northeast Oklahoma this morning
and eventually into northwest Arkansas. Mainly VFR conditions
are expected...but could see brief MVFR conditions in the
heavier downpours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 346 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Diffuse surface boundary lies across northeast OK and northwest
AR early this morning, with isolated convection beginning to break
out north of the boundary. Short-range model guidance remains
consistent in breaking out additional showers and thunderstorms
within the frontal zone this morning across mainly northeast OK,
potentially aided by a developing MCV associated with widespread
convection across northwest OK. Eventually will see chances spread
into northwest AR by this afternoon. Resultant cloud cover will
keep temps several degrees below what we have seen recently.

Boundary will lift north tonight and Saturday with any chances of
storms retreating to near the Kansas border. Hotter temps will
result Saturday with most areas remaining precip free through the
day before a more substantial mid level shortwave moves out of the
Rockies and pushes boundary back into the area Saturday night.
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across northern areas
Saturday night into Sunday with another brief cool down expected.

Frontal boundary will begin to wash out early next week as mid
level heights begin to rise. Hot weather will return with any
thunderstorm chances shifting to the north. Some areas will likely
see temps near 100 by the later half of the week.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...22

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 1, 12:24 PM CDT, 2 hours 17 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1224 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCT GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL...
         HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID WEEK.
A STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK WILL BRING A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER TO THE REGION.
EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR THE CENTURY
MARK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 1, 11:08 AM CDT, 3 hours 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1108 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PAWNEE                  36.34N 96.80W
07/01/2016                   PAWNEE             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER ENTERED THE BACK OF THE BUILDING AND FLOODED A
            PORTION OF THE PAWNEE PUBLIC LIBRARY. REPORT RECEIVED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

KAH

Special weather statement, Jul 1, 2:41 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
241 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

ARZ010-012015-
WASHINGTON AR-
241 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM CDT...

AT 240 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
FAYETTEVILLE... MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...                   SPRINGDALE...
FARMINGTON...                     ELKINS...
TONTITOWN...                      WEST FORK...
GREENLAND...                      JOHNSON...
ELM SPRINGS...                    GOSHEN...
OAK GROVE...                      BLACK OAK...
SAVOY...                          HARMON...
SHADY GROVE...                    WHEELER...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 49 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 56 AND 72.

LAT...LON 3610 9395 3593 9413 3609 9441 3610 9440
      3610 9439 3612 9439 3614 9438 3614 9434
      3621 9434 3622 9433 3621 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 049DEG 9KT 3609 9417

Special weather statement, Jul 1, 2:41 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
241 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

ARZ010-012015-
WASHINGTON AR-
241 PM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 240 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
FAYETTEVILLE...AND WAS EXHIBITING VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...                   SPRINGDALE...
FARMINGTON...                     ELKINS...
TONTITOWN...                      JOHNSON...
GOSHEN...                         OAK GROVE...
HARMON...                         SHADY GROVE...
SONORA...                         WHEELER...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 49 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60 AND 73.

LAT...LON 3607 9434 3620 9430 3619 9393 3598 9402
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 128DEG 9KT 3611 9416

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 30, 7:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa	45 min
Jun 30, 7:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner, Washington	24 min
Jun 30, 7:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	34 min
Jun 30, 7:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	13 min
Jun 30, 7:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa	33 min
Jul 1, 6:50 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Pawnee	3 hr
Jul 1, 7:17 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Pawnee	4 hr
Jul 1, 5:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair	25 min
Jul 1, 5:41 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Adair, Cherokee	3 hr
Jul 1, 6:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes	33 min
Jun 30, 11:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	30 min
Jun 30, 11:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison	25 min
Jul 1, 2:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	32 min
Jul 1, 2:54 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	3 hr
Jul 1, 3:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	46 min
Jul 1, 3:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison	37 min
Jul 1, 4:03 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Madison, Washington	3 hr
Jul 1, 4:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Franklin	36 min
Jul 1, 5:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Crawford, Franklin	26 min
Jul 1, 5:21 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Franklin	3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.