Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
We will cancel the heat advisory with this forecast issuance as
dewpoints have been running a bit lower than expected, which has
kept most heat index values below the 105 threshold. Isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have also developed,
and these are resulting in some temporary relief from the heat in
a few spots.

Unsettled weather will be the rule over the next week, with near
daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. A myriad of surface
boundaries will be lying across the area, with synoptic scale
boundaries being muddled by convective outflow boundaries. The
upper ridge will retrograde to the west resulting in stronger
northwest flow over our area by the middle to latter part of the
coming week. This will result in a favorable setup for periodic
MCS's to roll southeast across the area.

Temperatures this week will mainly be driven by convective
coverage, with the days of greatest storm coverage being less hot.
Enjoy the temporary break from the well above normal temperatures
this coming week, as long range progs show the heat will return in
full force around and just after the fourth of July.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  91  72  93 /  40  40  20  10
FSM   76  93  72  94 /  30  50  20  10
MLC   74  93  71  92 /  20  40  30  20
BVO   71  91  68  92 /  50  40  20  10
FYV   71  88  65  90 /  40  40  20  10
BYV   71  87  66  91 /  50  30  20  10
MKO   74  91  71  92 /  40  40  20  10
MIO   71  90  68  92 /  50  30  20  10
F10   74  91  72  91 /  30  40  20  10
HHW   74  93  72  92 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED TERRAIN
AREAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR
MID WEEK...BEFORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN AREA WIDE
BY LATE WEEK.  TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER DURING THE WEEK COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

OKZ054-262045-
OSAGE OK-
302 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

AT 301 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST
OF MARLAND...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FAIRFAX...                        BURBANK...
SOUTHERN KAW LAKE...              APPERSON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9673 3669 9667 3656 9670
      3656 9674 3657 9677 3655 9680 3653 9699
      3655 9690 3657 9689 3660 9692 3658 9698
      3659 9706 3660 9704 3668 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 260DEG 9KT 3661 9708

69

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
332 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

OKZ054-262100-
OSAGE OK-
332 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

AT 332 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PEARSONIA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
ELGIN...                          PEARSONIA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9624 3683 9623 3672 9644 3683 9655
      3700 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 232DEG 5KT 3684 9644

69

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