Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
610 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will largely prevail w/ the exception of patchy
light fog late tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Isolated convection has developed from NW AR into SE OK on
periphery of remnant MCV and within a strongly unstable airmass.
The limiting factor will remain the very warm mid level temps
which is likely to reduce coverage with generally dry conditions
overnight. Late night focus will be toward NW KS where convection
may develop and attempt to spread southeastward...but again is
expected to struggle to make it this far south.

The weak frontal zone currently arching through SW MO is shown to
slowly push westward with dewpoints lowering tomorrow from the
recent extreme values. While temperatures may remain near
persistence...lower humidity levels should reduce the heat index
values thus headlines will be realigned for Saturday. Further
minor cooling is possible on Sunday w/ lower dewpoints before
warmer and more humid conditions work to spread back eastward for
the first part of next week.

Extended data remain in good agreement on a strong upper high
expanding across the central U.S. while a weak cold front attempts
to push westward into the area around mid next week. Considering
the pattern...near persistence is good until proven otherwise thus
will trend warmer for temps for mid to late next week over
proposed guidance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  97  71  95 /  10  10   0   0
FSM   75  95  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
MLC   73  94  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
BVO   71  96  67  94 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   70  89  66  89 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   70  92  67  91 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   74  96  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
MIO   73  93  67  93 /  10   0   0  10
F10   74  95  70  92 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   74  92  72  92 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-058-063-
     068-069-072-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070-071.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ054>056-059>061-
     064>067-070-071.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ073>075.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
509 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
509 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...MAINLY AREAS WEST THE HIGHWAY 69
                            CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
DISCUSSION...
VERY DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SKIRTS THE
AREA TO THE EAST. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD BE MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM AND DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES NEAR 105 DEGREES ARE FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY AS
WELL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S INTO MID-WEEK. LOWER
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK AS DRIER AIR
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES
RETURNING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HUMIDITY RETURNS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

OKZ074-076-172015-
HASKELL OK-LE FLORE OK-
245 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LE FLORE AND
SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 245 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MC CURTAIN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
PANAMA...                         KEOTA...
MCCURTAIN...                      BOKOSHE...
MC CURTAIN...                     MILTON...

LAT...LON 3504 9493 3506 9493 3506 9495 3518 9507
      3535 9489 3536 9486 3537 9485 3535 9483
      3533 9482 3532 9482 3532 9480 3517 9465
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 231DEG 10KT 3516 9494

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
730 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

OKZ076-180115-
LE FLORE OK-
730 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

AT 730 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTH OF MOUNTAIN FORK TO NEAR MCCAULEY.
MOVEMENT WAS WEST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
BIG CEDAR...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 9475 3474 9445 3451 9446 3451 9466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 094DEG 13KT 3468 9442 3440 9432

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
813 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

OKZ076-180200-
LE FLORE OK-
813 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LE FLORE COUNTY
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

AT 813 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF
OCTAVIA...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
OCTAVIA...

LAT...LON 3459 9489 3463 9455 3451 9453 3451 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 077DEG 17KT 3453 9464