Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
918 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Complex of storms, which formed in association with the synoptic
front, were affecting NE OK this morning. These storms weren't
well resolved by the numerical guidance. The latest couple runs of
the HRRR have finally latched on to this...and will use the theme
of its forecast for the remainder of today. Given the effects of
the morning storms...looks like the better chances for afternoon
storms will be along and south of I-40 and have adjusted pops in
that direction. If trends continue further adjustment will be
made. The evening hours look quiet...before more storms develop to
the south and west and eventually track into parts of the area
after midnight.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VLIFR vsbys/cigs will prevail across nw AR for a brief period
this morning...with MVFR cigs occurring briefly at the remaining
TAF sites. Cigs to lift to VFR by afternoon...with increasing MVFR
cigs tonight as TSRA chances continue for the latter portion of
the TAF period...and will be covered with prob groups at all sites
after 06z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning water vapor imagery detected an upper cyclone
across the northern Plains...with convection extending along a
weak front from MN into southwestern KS. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase today...especially during the afternoon...as
the aforementioned cold front makes slow progress east. Increasing
instability this afternoon will be supportive of a few strong
thunderstorms...although the overall weak bulk shear should
preclude organized severe weather. That said...still could see
sporadic severe thunderstorms...with large hail and damaging
winds being the main threat. Thunderstorm chances will remain on
the high end into Wednesday as the weak cold front and a mid-level
shear axis linger across the forecast area.

As a weak upper low ejected out of the southwestern states...with
associated shear axis is expected to shift a little farther south
by Thursday into Friday. The higher PoPs are expected across
southeast OK into western AR during this timeframe...with rain
chances trailing off by Saturday.

Northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to develop late this weekend
into early next week...with several days of drier weather along
with seasonal temperatures.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  65  78  63 /  70  70  70  20
FSM   85  68  80  65 /  40  60  70  60
MLC   82  65  77  63 /  50  70  70  40
BVO   81  63  78  59 /  70  70  60  20
FYV   81  63  77  60 /  50  60  70  60
BYV   81  64  77  60 /  40  60  70  60
MKO   83  65  77  63 /  50  70  70  40
MIO   81  64  77  61 /  50  70  70  20
F10   81  64  79  63 /  60  70  70  30
HHW   84  67  80  66 /  50  70  70  60

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
504 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
504 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EAST
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...SOME INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS
LIKELY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING...SMALL HAIL
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. A LIMITED RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN ONGOING THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...HOWEVER THE SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN.

ADDITIONALLY...SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING LATER
TODAY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A SLOW MOVING AND UNSETTLED UPPER PATTERN WILL OFFER CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE UPPER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
905 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

OKZ064-065-311430-
OKFUSKEE OK-CREEK OK-
905 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OKFUSKEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN CREEK COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 904 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF
WELTY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
OKFUSKEE...                       WELTY...
MASON...

LAT...LON 3579 9619 3555 9619 3555 9611 3553 9610
      3551 9655 3568 9659
TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 258DEG 23KT 3561 9648

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
929 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

OKZ065-311500-
OKFUSKEE OK-
929 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OKFUSKEE COUNTY UNTIL
1000 AM CDT...

AT 928 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CASTLE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
OKEMAH...                         CASTLE...
CLEARVIEW...                      MASON...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 215 AND
227.

LAT...LON 3562 9641 3558 9619 3555 9619 3555 9611
      3532 9621 3543 9644 3546 9644 3546 9647
      3545 9649
TIME...MOT...LOC 1428Z 290DEG 10KT 3552 9637

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