Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
622 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Monday afternoon,
with the potential for brief MVFR or lower conditions should a
storm affect a terminal.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong heating/instability has developed across portions of
northeast Oklahoma this afternoon where scattered strong
thunderstorms have developed. Deep layer shear remains minimal at
best but a few pulse storms could produce marginally severe
hail/damaging winds through the afternoon hours. Storms
developing well west of the area this afternoon will likely remain
so with only a slight chance for thunderstorms overnight.

Unsettled weather pattern will continue for the next several days
as several upper waves traverse the area with a moist/unstable
air-mass in place. Stronger upper disturbance shifts into the
southern plains Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread
showers/thunderstorms likely along/ahead of approaching cold
front. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to
some localized flash flooding.

Models have trended a little slower with speed/progression of
cold front, which is now forecast to stall near the ARKLATX
region Thursday into Friday. Shower/thunderstorm chances will
likely persist across portions of southeast Oklahoma and west-
central Arkansas during this time as a developing upper low moves
into northern/central Texas. Exact track of upper low will
determine how quickly precipitation shifts south of the region
by the weekend.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
456 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WHICH
MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK BEFORE A MORE DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ068-300030-
CHEROKEE OK-
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 700 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PEGGS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
SCRAPER...

LAT...LON 3615 9480 3593 9480 3596 9504 3616 9505
      3616 9489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 265DEG 8KT 3603 9499

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
702 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             1 E CLAREMORE           36.31N 95.60W
05/29/2016  E0.50 INCH       ROGERS             OK   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL EAST OF CLAREMORE

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
703 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

ARZ010-300030-
WASHINGTON AR-
703 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

AT 703 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF
LINCOLN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
LINCOLN...                        STRICKLER...
CLYDE...                          MORROW...
HOGEYE...                         CANEHILL...

LAT...LON 3582 9450 3595 9452 3597 9423 3581 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 226DEG 5KT 3587 9443

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     FLOOD            7 NNE ONETA             36.11N 95.66W
05/29/2016                   WAGONER            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            4 TO 6 INCHES OF WATER OVER 305TH BETWEEN 31ST AND 61ST.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
737 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 NNE TAHLEQUAH         36.01N 94.92W
05/29/2016                   CHEROKEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN AT DIAMOND HEAD FLOATS NORTHEAST OF
            TAHLEQUAH. THE TREE FELL ONTO 3 PEOPLE. EMERGENCY CREWS
            ENROUTE.

&&

AEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
749 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

OKZ053-300130-
CHOCTAW OK-
749 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

AT 749 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF
MANCHESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FORT TOWSON...                    SAWYER...
RAYMOND GARY STATE PARK...        HUGO LAKE STATE PARK...
SWINK...                          FALLON...
FROGVILLE...                      HUSKEY...

LAT...LON 3387 9546 3389 9547 3406 9542 3404 9516
      3394 9516 3396 9523 3394 9525 3390 9526
      3389 9526 3389 9527 3391 9527 3390 9528
      3387 9529 3389 9533 3387 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 204DEG 16KT 3385 9532