Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
940 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front is moving slowly south across the area and has moved
southeast of Interstate 44 at this time. Elevated convection has
developed well southeast of the frontal boundary, in roughly the
same area where it occurred earlier in the day. Weak convection
has also been attempting to develop along the frontal boundary
with little success thus far.

The elevated convection from northwest Arkansas into southeast
Oklahoma should slowly increase over the next few hours, and some
of these storms will be capable of producing large hail. They may
become more surface based with time as well, which may increase
the damaging wind threat. Additional showers and storms will
likely develop near and north of the frontal boundary, but this
activity will have a lower severe weather potential.

Have made minor adjustments to overnight pops, with the rest of
the forecast looking on track at this time.

Update on the way.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
502 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-121000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
502 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MILES AN HOUR POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS TO
THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY ENDING BY
LATE MORNING.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING BY SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

ARZ019-OKZ072-120330-
CRAWFORD AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND
NORTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

AT 1007 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF
SHORT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
VAN BUREN...                      CEDARVILLE...
RUDY...                           FIGURE FIVE...
SHORT...                          CONCORD...
DORA...                           SHIBLEY...
UNIONTOWN...                      FURRY...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 40 IN ARKANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 10.
 INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA NEAR MILE MARKER 328.
 INTERSTATE 540 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 3.

LAT...LON 3540 9425 3543 9436 3544 9437 3545 9441
      3544 9442 3547 9454 3559 9456 3566 9428
TIME...MOT...LOC 0307Z 267DEG 27KT 3552 9450

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1021 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

OKZ068-069-120345-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-
1021 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

AT 1021 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
PUMPKIN CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
COOKSON...                        CHEROKEE LANDING STATE PARK...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3566 9479 3565 9512 3576 9513 3579 9513
      3594 9479
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 247DEG 28KT 3574 9505

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

OKZ068-069-120415-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-
1049 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1048 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
CHEROKEE LANDING STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
TAHLEQUAH...                      COOKSON...
ELDON...                          CHEROKEE LANDING STATE PARK...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3569 9498 3581 9507 3598 9480 3573 9467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 246DEG 24KT 3577 9498

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1101 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

OKZ072-074-076-120430-
HASKELL OK-SEQUOYAH OK-LE FLORE OK-
1101 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SEQUOYAH...
NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE AND EAST CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM
CDT...

AT 1100 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BOKOSHE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
MULDROW...                        SPIRO...
PANAMA...                         BOKOSHE...
SCULLYVILLE...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3511 9480 3522 9489 3540 9464 3520 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 0400Z 237DEG 24KT 3520 9477