Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
608 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR to VFR conditions are expected through tonight at all area
TAF sites with scattered thunderstorms affecting the western Arkansas
TAF sites from 02-06z. KMLC will see the potential for thunderstorms
from 00-03z. VFR conditions are expected for much of Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Fire and severe weather concerns dominate the forecast for the
next 6 to 9 hours, with a dryline sitting just west of the
forecast area and a cold front moving through the panhandle
region. Substantial CU field has developed across eastern Oklahoma
in the axis of best low level moisture. To the west of the CU
field, low level dew points remain in the 50s despite winds being
substantially veered, but the moisture in this area is fairly
shallow. Isolated thunderstorms could develop as early as late
afternoon, with better areal coverage likely by mid evening.
Instability and wind fields will be supportive of all modes of
severe weather, including at least some potential for supercells
and tornadoes, per model ensembles of updraft helicity. Most, if
not all, of the thunderstorm activity should be east of the
forecast area by the midnight to 1 am time frame.

On the fire weather front, relative humidities will fall quickly
following the dryline passage. Mesonet observations indicate 20
percent humidities only a county west of the forecast area, with
even lower values to the west of that. Winds will shift to a more
westerly direction following the dryline passage, with gusts
likely to approach and possibly exceed 50 mph, given what has
occurred in western Oklahoma behind the boundary. For any ongoing
fires, a wind shift and increase in speed should be expected and
prepared for. The worst fire weather conditions through early
evening will be along and west of Highway 75, with some
improvement with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Winds
should remain gusty through the night, however, which could prove
problematic for ongoing fire fights. The Wind Advisory will be
extended through 1 am tonight.

Below normal temperatures will follow the aforementioned cold
front for Thursday and Thursday night. Sub-freezing temperatures
are likely for parts of northeast Oklahoma and into northwest
Arkansas late Thursday night and into Friday morning. A Freeze
Watch will be issued for areas northeast of a Pawnee to Tahlequah
to Ozark line.

Southerly winds will return for Friday, leading to warmer
temperatures to close out the week and begin the weekend. Saturday
night and into early Sunday continues to feature higher rain
chances, but recent model runs indicate that the entire day Sunday
may not be a washout, although it still should be chilly. Another
warmup is expected early next week, with highs by Tuesday just
above normal.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     OKZ054>059-061>063-068-069.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ054>071-073.

AR...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ001-010.

&&

AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
453 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
453 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONGOING NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 75.
	ONSET...AFTER 6 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALL EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...WEST OF A LINE FROM CRAIG TO MCINTOSH COUNTIES.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

DISCUSSION...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 75 CORRIDOR
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  EXTREMELY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES
AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY AGGRESSIVE
WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM TULSA TO MCALESTER.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR ARE PRESENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
AS STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  FURTHERMORE...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED TORNADIC THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
AS THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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