Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
906 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
906 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LIKELY THIS WEEK...
...ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
    AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
    ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AS AREAL COVERAGE INCREASES TODAY...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING BY THIS AFTERNOON.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA ANDALL
OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TEXAS THIS MORNING. THESE
STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND EVENTUALLY INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WOULD BE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 TO 70 MPH WIND
GUSTS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AN OVERALL LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA FROM PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...
           HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY
MORNING ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WORSENING
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD AFFECT
THE SAME AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE 5 TO 7 INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ROGERS TO STIGLER TO
ANTLERS.

THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AT
LEAST SMALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH
SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RETURN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1029 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

OKZ049-053-081715-
PUSHMATAHA OK-CHOCTAW OK-
1029 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHOCTAW AND SOUTHWESTERN
PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM CST...

AT 1028 AM CST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTH OF BOKCHITO TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HONEY GROVE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
HUGO...                           ANTLERS...
BOSWELL...                        SAWYER...
SOPER...                          MESSER...
KENT...                           GOODLAND...
HUGO LAKE STATE PARK...           GRANT...
SPEER...                          GAY...
ORD...                            UNGER...
FALLON...                         FROGVILLE...
HUSKEY...

LAT...LON 3387 9550 3389 9551 3388 9554 3393 9556
      3394 9560 3389 9569 3390 9575 3387 9577
      3387 9584 3395 9594 3412 9594 3415 9598
      3416 9578 3434 9577 3394 9525 3390 9525
      3389 9526 3390 9526 3391 9527 3387 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 227DEG 39KT 3395 9611 3368 9584