Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1133 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 06z TAF discussion can be found below...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Two rounds of storms are expected tonight. The first round is a
broken line of strong to severe storms moving east across OK attm.
Tempo groups were maintained in the TAFs out ahead of this
line...estimating the most favored time window for arrival.
Another round of storms is expected to form along/ahead of the
cold front over the next hour or so across NE OK and will move
quickly toward NW AR into the early morning hours Tuesday. Tempo
groups have been maintained at the NE OK and NW AR sites to cover
this. A period of MVFR cigs/vsbys may accompany the storms...at
least briefly. The front will bring a wind switch to NWrly with
some gusts around 20 kts early...backing off by afternoon. VFR
conditions will prevail after the fropa.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing across western Oklahoma
this evening. This activity will translate into southeast Oklahoma later
Tonight. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity
of a cold front that is expected to move into northern Oklahoma around 2 am
Tuesday morning. The lift from the front will be enhanced by a mid-level
shortwave moving into the plains and sharpening as it approaches the area
towards sunrise. The threat for severe thunderstorms will remain through
the overnight hours with elevated instabilities becoming increasingly
favorable. Golf ball to baseball size hail will be possible. Strong gusty
winds will also be possible as the storms organize into a line and
sweep to the southeast. Have made only a few changes to the grids for now.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  57  35  64 /  90  20   0   0
FSM   53  63  37  64 /  80  70   0   0
MLC   51  58  35  64 /  90  40   0   0
BVO   41  58  31  64 /  70  10   0   0
FYV   49  54  29  60 /  90  70   0   0
BYV   48  52  31  58 /  80  70   0   0
MKO   48  56  36  63 /  90  40   0   0
MIO   42  50  31  61 /  80  30   0   0
F10   49  58  37  64 /  90  30   0   0
HHW   58  63  37  65 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
503 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011130-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
503 PM CST MON FEB 29 2016

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY OVERNIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
TO BASEBALL SIZE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.  THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP
EAST AND SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER AS THE STORMS MATURE AND SPREAD EASTWARD THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LIKELY TO END BY 9 AM
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS...AND A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
WILL BE ONGOING AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING
FURTHER EAST.  GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL RAISE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.  GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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