Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Tulsa, OK

315 
WWUS54 KTSA 162334
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

ARC033-131-170000-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0229.000000T0000Z-160917T0000Z/
SEBASTIAN AR-CRAWFORD AR-
634 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN SEBASTIAN AND SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 634 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CEDARVILLE TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF RUDY TO 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT SMITH...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
FORT SMITH...                     VAN BUREN...
CEDARVILLE...                     MOUNTAINBURG...
ALMA...                           BARLING...
LAVACA...                         MULBERRY...
DYER...                           RUDY...
FIGURE FIVE...                    KIBLER...
CENTRAL CITY...                   CONCORD...
FURRY...                          URSULA...
SHIBLEY...                        UNIONTOWN...

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 40 IN ARKANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 20.
 INTERSTATE 540 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 9.
 INTERSTATE 49 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 22 AND 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 9408 3529 9409 3535 9443 3540 9443
      3560 9446 3563 9413 3545 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 261DEG 38KT 3559 9441 3548 9430 3537 9437 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

456 
WWUS54 KTSA 162352
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

ARC033-131-170002-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0229.000000T0000Z-160917T0000Z/
SEBASTIAN AR-CRAWFORD AR-
652 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN SEBASTIAN AND
SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...
            
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3544 9408 3529 9409 3535 9443 3540 9443
      3560 9446 3563 9413 3545 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 266DEG 39KT 3559 9441 3548 9430 3537 9437 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
315 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

.DISCUSSION...
It has been an interesting radar evolution over the past several
hours...as we started this morning with two outflow boundaries
with which to focus storms. The western MCS weakened as it moved
into NE Oklahoma...and most spots received just light
precipitation. In fact...KTUL only received 0.02" since 12z with
KRVS picking up 0.05". Area mesonet sites show the highest amounts
were along the KS/OK border and just west of our CWA. The storms
forming along the northern outflow slowed their southward
propagation as the western MCS moved in and the upper wave
approached. The active area now is across western AR where
scattered storms have developed but will likely dissipate by early
evening. Water vapor shows the upper wave over eastern OK is
quickly moving east and will take the moisture/lift with it.

Have lowered pops for the overnight period based on current radar
trends, stabilized airmass, and departing large scale forcing with
upper wave. Synoptic front is in KS...with a convectively
generated boundary in the TX panhandle. Will have to monitor these
areas for development...but these are the best options for any
storms overnight. Although the global models suggest precipitation
overnight and Saturday...the last few runs of the experimental
HRRR are not. Will keep low chance pops just in case for Saturday
if anything is able to develop overnight.

Otherwise...by Saturday afternoon...upper trough will be across
the Great Lakes. By Sunday we will be drying out as trough axis
is east of us. Upper ridge builds in for Monday/Tuesday with
another round of hot days with highs in the upper 80s/90s.

Corfidi

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  87  65  87 /  40  20  20  20
FSM   71  90  69  88 /  30  30  10  40
MLC   70  89  67  88 /  20  20  20  40
BVO   65  86  61  85 /  50  20  20  20
FYV   65  85  62  82 /  40  30  10  20
BYV   66  82  64  83 /  30  40  10  20
MKO   69  87  66  86 /  40  20  20  20
MIO   66  85  62  84 /  40  20  10  20
F10   69  87  68  87 /  40  20  20  40
HHW   71  91  70  91 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
129 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
129 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL
AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA..FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AHEAD OF
AN UPPER WAVE. DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF OUR AREA, AND THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING WHERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THRU THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT. A
COMPACT BUT POTENT UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

RIDGING ALOFT NEXT WEEK WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

ARZ001-162145-
BENTON AR-
406 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

AT 406 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF PEA RIDGE TO CAVE SPRINGS. MOVEMENT
WAS NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
SPRINGDALE...                     ROGERS...
BENTONVILLE...                    LOWELL...
PEA RIDGE...                      BETHEL HEIGHTS...
CAVE SPRINGS...                   GARFIELD...
GATEWAY...                        AVOCA...
LARUE...                          BLAND...
WALNUT HILL...                    HILL TOP...
MONTE NE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 49 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 76 AND 84...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 86 AND 88.

LAT...LON 3640 9388 3639 9388 3638 9389 3624 9397
      3622 9429 3650 9412 3650 9387 3641 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 243DEG 12KT 3645 9408 3626 9423

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
430 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROGERS                  36.33N 94.12W
09/16/2016                   BENTON             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF DAMAGE NEAR POST ROAD. ALSO PICTURE OF ESTIMATED
            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JBM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
437 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

ARZ002-011-162215-
MADISON AR-CARROLL AR-
437 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MADISON AND
NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 437 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEAVER TO HOBBS STATE PARK.
MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
EUREKA SPRINGS...                 BEAVER...
CLIFTY...                         GRANDVIEW...
BEST...                           OAK HILL...
PLEASANT RIDGE...

LAT...LON 3621 9372 3623 9389 3624 9388 3624 9387
      3631 9387 3631 9382 3634 9386 3650 9381
      3650 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 260DEG 10KT 3649 9380 3624 9392

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
440 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

OKZ070-071-162215-
MUSKOGEE OK-MCINTOSH OK-
440 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH AND CENTRAL
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 439 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOYNTON TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
MUSKOGEE...                       CHECOTAH...
WARNER...                         PORUM...
WEBBERS FALLS...                  OKTAHA...
BRAGGS...                         COUNCIL HILL...
RENTIESVILLE...                   GREENLEAF STATE PARK...
LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK...        KEEFETON...
WAINWRIGHT...                     SUMMIT...
ONAPA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 IN OKLAHOMA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 256 AND
284.

LAT...LON 3568 9564 3575 9513 3535 9517 3534 9518
      3532 9517 3532 9569
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 265DEG 31KT 3562 9558 3536 9564

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
458 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

OKZ049-162245-
PUSHMATAHA OK-
458 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 458 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KELLOND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
ANTLERS...                        KOSOMA...
KELLOND...                        MOYERS...
EUBANKS...                        DELA...
FINLEY...

LAT...LON 3417 9572 3426 9578 3446 9555 3422 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 239DEG 19KT 3425 9569

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

ARZ002-162315-
CARROLL AR-
535 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

AT 535 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER RULE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
GREEN FOREST...                   RUDD...
RULE...                           CARROLLTON...
OSAGE...                          DRYFORK...
CONNOR...                         DENVER...
CABANAL...                        COIN...

LAT...LON 3615 9349 3632 9356 3642 9330 3618 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 250DEG 25KT 3626 9344