Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Tulsa, OK

236 
WWUS54 KTSA 140009
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
709 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

OKC113-140018-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0123.000000T0000Z-160514T0015Z/
OSAGE OK-
709 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3700 9652 3689 9638 3673 9678 3677 9679
      3678 9679 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 336DEG 32KT 3703 9677 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
648 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Thunderstorms entering northeast Oklahoma at this time will weaken
quickly over the next couple hours and have included a VCSH at
KBVO until 03Z. A cold front will move through the area tonight
shifting the winds to the north.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Focus this evening will be on convection developing along the cold
front currently from NE KS into far NW OK. Conditions will support
a risk of severe weather with the strongest storms through the
early evening hours with a limited severe weather threat across
NE OK, with storms weakening quickly as the boundary layer
stabilizes.

Cooler and drier air will overspread the region behind the cold
front. Additionally, scattered light showers are possible Sat with
more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage expected Sun. The
addition of cloud cover and precip will further highlight the
seasonably cool temperatures. Generally favored the ECMWF which
keeps the warm sector suppressed more southward than other models
through early next week. This will keep any severe risk comprised
of elevated convection which should limit the potential through
much of next week. By late next week a stronger wave may emerge
and bring more unstable conditions to the region.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
451 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
451 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
    ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY STALL SOUTH THE AREA EARLY THIS
WEEKEND AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT PASS BY....RESULTING IN LOW CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH. ON MONDAY ON
TUESDAY...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE WARM
FRONT REACHES THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS
THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.