Heat Advisory 8, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
227 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Heat concerns dominate the forecast for the next few days, with
some improvement likely by the weekend. Current dew points are
only a couple of degrees shy of 80 across a good chunk of
northeast Oklahoma, generally in the heaviest rainfall footprint
from the last several days. It is expected that at least through
tomorrow afternoon, this will continue to be the case, with model
dew points likely underdone by a couple of degrees. With
tomorrow's high temperatures expected to be similar to today's in
most areas, widespread heat index values in excess of 105 degrees
should again occur, with values of 110 or higher in parts of
northeast Oklahoma. Will issue heat headlines in a similar
configuration to those seen today, only leaving Ottawa County in
an Advisory instead of a Warning like today. The reasoning behind
not issuing a Warning for tomorrow for Ottawa County revolves
around the potential for overnight thunderstorm activity in Kansas
and Missouri to brush far northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Residual cloud cover could keep heat index values a
couple of degrees under today's values.

Although overall conditions should improve a bit for the latter
part of the week, additional heat headlines will likely be needed
for Thursday and Friday.

Thunderstorm chances will begin to increase especially by late
Friday and into Saturday morning, as a weak front approaches from
the north and a series of fast moving stronger disturbances move
through the region. Areas north of Interstate 40 will be most
likely to see more than an isolated storm through the early part
of next week. Heat index values should remain below Advisory
criteria into early next week, although triple digit values will
still be seen.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  98  80  97 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   77  95  77  96 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   79  94  78  94 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   75  97  78  96 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   75  92  75  92 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   75  93  76  93 /  30  20  10  10
MKO   77  94  77  95 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   75  95  79  96 /  20  20  10  10
F10   77  95  77  95 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   76  94  76  94 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-059-
     062>076.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ049-053-058-
     059-062>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ054>058-060-061.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for
     OKZ054>057-060-061.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

LONG TERM....22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2016

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA THROUGH 8PM...

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH 8PM...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 103 TO 112 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL
                      ...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES
PASSING BY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS WEEK MAY OFFER LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND
POSSIBLY A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE HEAT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.