Fire Weather Watch 9, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
355 AM CDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level shortwave dropping south across Missouri this morning
will bring a bit of reinforcing cold air south today before a
significant warm up occurs starting Monday. Surface high will be
over the area by late this afternoon and this evening resulting in
quickly falling temperatures this evening and one more night of
sub-freezing lows. Southerly winds may begin to develop in parts
of eastern OK late Sunday night, but likely not soon enough to
keep temps above freezing. Thus have upgraded the Freeze Watch to
a warning for all counties.

South winds will increase Monday with much warmer temperatures and
dew points remaining very low. Fire weather conditions will begin
to deteriorate as a result as RH falls at or below 25% in much of
eastern OK with high temps 65-70. Wind speeds are more marginal
but gradient appears to support speeds around 20 mph and gusts
near 30 mph. Have opted to issue a Fire Weather Watch generally
northwest of I-44 for Monday afternoon. Conditions will also
likely be critical on Tuesday as temps warm further and wind
speeds increase, potentially gusting around 40 mph. Low level
moisture may try to increase by Tue afternoon making RH more
marginal...however, would not be surprised if models are
overdoing this somewhat. Given the forecast wind and max temp
will go ahead with Fire Wx Watch for tue as well.

More substantial moisture return likely by Tue night and Wed as
upper level wave moves out of the Rockies and into the central
plains. Model consensus is for a faster movement of the upper
system, with cold front pushing through Wed night. This will
offer the highest chance of showers and thunderstorms, with most
precip shifting east of the area on Thursday. Cooler and dry
conditions will then follow for Fri/Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  33  68  50 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   53  32  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   53  29  66  51 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   52  26  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   46  25  61  43 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   47  29  62  45 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   51  30  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   50  30  65  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   52  31  67  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   54  31  65  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-053>076.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM....14

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