Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
312 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning across
far northern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in the vicinity
of the 850 mb boundary. Meanwhile, an MCS was moving to the
east-southeast across south-central Oklahoma. Both of these features
will affect the area this morning. Additional showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop this afternoon in the vicinity of outflow
boundaries left over from the morning convection. Some of the thunderstorms
today could be strong to severe with strong gusty winds the main
concern. However, do not expect anything the magnitude of what occurred
on Thursday.

Another thunderstorm complex could affect the area again Tonight
and on Saturday. Saturday will be the last day that we see near
normal temperatures for a while. A large ridge of high pressure is
set to build across the central United states from Sunday well into
next week. Heat headlines will more than likely be needed for a
good chunk of next week across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  72  92  76 /  30  30  40  10
FSM   92  73  93  75 /  40  30  30   0
MLC   91  73  93  76 /  40  30  30   0
BVO   89  71  90  73 /  30  30  50  10
FYV   87  69  88  72 /  50  30  40  10
BYV   88  69  88  71 /  50  30  40  10
MKO   89  72  92  74 /  40  30  40   0
MIO   90  70  91  73 /  30  30  40  10
F10   89  73  93  75 /  40  30  40   0
HHW   94  74  95  75 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
419 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
419 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED
    AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
    AREA...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH DRY...WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE
RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

OKZ049-053-151045-
PUSHMATAHA OK-CHOCTAW OK-
452 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHOCTAW AND SOUTHWESTERN
PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 452 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF STRINGTOWN TO 3 MILES WEST OF BLUE.
MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
ANTLERS...                        BOSWELL...
SOPER...                          KENT...
KOSOMA...                         KELLOND...
MOYERS...                         SPEER...
GAY...                            DELA...
FINLEY...                         UNGER...

LAT...LON 3387 9584 3391 9588 3392 9591 3394 9594
      3412 9594 3414 9596 3415 9598 3416 9578
      3451 9578 3430 9535 3391 9565 3391 9567
      3388 9570 3390 9575 3387 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0952Z 305DEG 31KT 3450 9593 3400 9628