Areal Flood Warning 6, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1147 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Expect thunder to affect KBVO for the first hour or so of
this TAF package with activity currently in the area. Generally
MVFR and VFR conditions are expected at the Oklahoma and KFSM
through the valid period with scattered thunderstorms expected
to affect the area again on Wednesday. Went with consistency and
kept mention of fog at the northwest Arkansas TAF sites for tonight
into early Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The weak frontal boundary that has sagged south into northeast
Oklahoma is likely to continue to be the main focus for convection
overnight. Have adjusted pops down further to the south, where
only isolated convection may develop overnight. Have also lowered
overnight lows a bit in parts of southeast Oklahoma, where current
readings are near the previous forecast lows.

Update on the way.

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
502 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
502 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SOUTH
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE STORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINES WITH A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND A STALLED FRONT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT A WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT IS NOT
EXPECTED. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.