Areal Flood Advisory 2, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
138 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
138 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2016

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA....ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 IN OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
	ONSET....AFTER 3PM.  ENDING AROUND 7PM.
    GREATEST THREAT...EAST OF A LINE FROM CLAYTON TO FORT SMITH TO
                      ST.PAUL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 2PM.  ENDING AROUND 7PM.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. WHILE OVERALL THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS IS LOW. AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORT
IS POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND DEVELOP QUICKLY INTO
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WIND AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ALOFT ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
A THREAT. BECAUSE AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS PASSING OVERHEAD
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPIN TO IT AND EVEN
WEAKER CELLS COULD PRODUCE FUNNEL CLOUDS. THE MORE IMPORTANT
TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO BE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. WHILE THE RISK IS LIMITED...IT IS IN THIS
ZONE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED DEEP
ROTATION. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT FORM WILL TEND TO INTENSIFY AS THEY
MOVE DEEPER INTO ARKANSAS.

THE STORM RISK WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ENDING EARLY THIS EVENING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS FALL.

GUSTY WINDS WILL DRIVE THE FIRE POTENTIAL TO HIGH AND VERY HIGH
LEVELS ON TUESDAY.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN TO
THE AREA LATER IN THE COMING WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD ACTIVATE SPOTTER
OPERATIONS. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD
CLOSELY FOLLOW LOCAL CONDITIONS AND BE READY TO ACTIVATE
SPOTTERS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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