Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
606 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Profiler and water vapor data suggests a shortwave moving towards
the area within the northwest flow aloft, and is likely responsible
for the MCS moving into northwestern KS. At the surface, a weak
boundary has been set up near NEB/KS state line and is gradually
becoming more diffuse.

With the shortwave evident in satellite imagery, think there isn't
much to keep the MCS from continuing to move southeast along the
instability axis and the HRRR seems to be catching on with some
consistent outputs the last couple hours. The RAP tends to want to
mix out the the boundary layer moisture quite a bit across northeast
KS resulting in the better instability mainly across the
southwestern counties. The latest OBs tend to support this idea as
dewpoints have fallen into the lower 60s over Brown and Marshall
counties. So the expectation is for storms to move more towards
south central KS. With better mid level flow, models are showing 0-
6KM shear around 40KT so some organization is probable with the MCS
and the main reason for a damaging wind risk. Freezing levels remain
fairly high for large hail, but there could be some marginally
severe hail with some of the stronger updrafts.

Have continued with some chance POPs into the morning Friday with
indication from the models that there could still be some vorticity
overhead. Although the expectation is for the chance to diminish
through the day with the vorticity moving southeast of the area and
surface ridging building in. Have not changed the temp forecast much
from the previous shift. Lows could be a little tricky if rain
cooled air knocks reading down into the lower 60s. Otherwise would
anticipate lows in the mid 60s for most area. Models show good
mixing of the boundary layer to near 800MB. However there is also
progged to be cooler air advecting in. So highs in the lower and
middle 80s seems to be in the ballpark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Friday Night through Sunday...

Upper flow transitions from northwest to west during the weekend
periods. Low level winds respond with a slow increase from the
southwest with a stronger low level jet develop Saturday night. Best
convergence Friday night into Saturday looks to be to the southwest
of the area, with Saturday night into early Sunday bringing much
better convergence, moisture, and instability. Severe weather
threats look low given elevated nature, warm temps aloft, and meager
lapse rates. Temperatures become somewhat of a challenge, with
little wind and potentially rather clear skies Friday night, then
ongoing precip into Sunday for uncertainty in daytime heating. Have
trended a bit cooler Friday night, and tightened the gradient Sunday
with temps pushing the mid 90s west.

Sunday Night through Thursday...

The biggest take away from the extended period is: THE HEAT IS BACK!
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday night as a weak
shortwave within the northwest flow moves across the Central Plains.
The better chances look to be north and east of the outlook area.
The stubborn upper-level ridge across the Western US, will migrate
eastward early next week, setting up its axis across the Plains.
Guidance suggests high temperatures will remain above average for
the period with highs in the middle to upper 90s. With predominately
southerly low-level flow, plentiful BL moisture will remain in place
with surface dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s (West to
East). The combination of heat and humidity will result in the heat
indices in the 100 to 105 degree range Monday through Wednesday.
These heat indices may continue into Thursday, however confidence is
lower due to the possibility of showers and thunderstorms associated
with a weak cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

Main concern is the cluster of TSRA northwest of the sites. Expect
the severity to decrease as it impacts KMHK aft 02Z and KTOP/KFOE
aft 03Z. Still could see some gusts up to 50 kts on the leading
edge and on the back side of the TSRA. Temporary MVFR to perhaps
IFR conditions are possible through 06Z before activity diminishes
southeast and conditions return to VFR for the remainder of the
period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Baerg/65
AVIATION...Prieto

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-292045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
344 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA
FOR STORMS IS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CONCORDIA TO
EMPORIA. DAMAGING WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH IS THE MAIN
HAZARD...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HAIL WITH THE STORMS. THESE
STORMS COULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CONCORDIA AND MINNEAPOLIS
AREAS BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EMPORIA AREA
AROUND 9 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 105 DEGREES OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 N GLASCO              39.45N 97.83W
07/28/2016  E70 MPH          CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SUSTAINED 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH, POSSIBLY HIGHER.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
612 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE GLASCO            39.34N 97.84W
07/28/2016  E50 MPH          CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL LIMBS DOWN IN THE TOWN OF GLASCO

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
614 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE DELPHOS            39.32N 97.73W
07/28/2016  E70 MPH          CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 70-80 MPH WIND GUSTS. TREE DAMAGE UNKNOWN.

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     TSTM WND GST     CONCORDIA AIRPORT       39.55N 97.65W
07/28/2016  M73 MPH          CLOUD              KS   ASOS

&&

BAERG

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