Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
159 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

Pre-frontal thunderstorm activity will continue to push east
through mid-afternoon. Some of this pre-frontal activity still
maintains some potential for severe hail, although the better
potential may be a bit later this afternoon along the incoming
strong cold front.

Storms will form along a cold front passing through the area this
afternoon and evening. The models have been fairly consistent with
the timing of the front, which will be the focus for the storms.
Expected surface based development around 2 to 3 pm this
afternoon across northern KS. Ahead of the front a few elevated
showers and storms have formed and will move east across the area.
These may be capable of producing hail and isolated wind, but the
coverage is very uncertain although should remain isolated. More
widely scattered storms will be present along the front. The
models have been overestimating the dew points, which are
currently in the lower 50s. There is a chance they may increase to
the mid 50s in the next few hours. Given these dew points the
mlcape should reach 1000 to 1500 j/kg. The deep layer shear is
around 40 to 50 kts and should be sufficient to support some
severe storms. Soundings show mainly a straight line hodographs
with slight curvature in the lowest levels. Therefore expect that
left and right moving storms will be possible if able to rotate
aloft. Soundings would suggest a high storm base given they are
overestimating the dew points. The main threat will be large hail
and damaging wind with a very low tornado threat. Several of the
high res models have highlighted decent max updraft helicity
swaths, and max 10 m wind gusts approaching severe limits moving
across most of the area with these storms. Storms will be moving
southeast at 30 to 40 kts therefore do not expect any flooding.
Expect most of the storms will weaken and move out of the forecast
area by 7 pm this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

On Saturday, a weak upper wave and upper level frontogenesis will
provide lift in the mid and upper levels across parts of the area.
This will induce mid-level saturation and cloud cover, and will try
to produce light precipitation. However, very dry air below the
cloud layer should be quite effective in evaporation so have reduced
pops and included mention of sprinkles across parts of the area on
Saturday. Clouds and plenty of cold advection will keep temperatures
much cooler and a persistent north breeze will add to the cool
feeling conditions. Highs are likely to top out in the upper 50s to
around 60.

Skies are likely to clear out in the northeast Saturday night but
additional clouds will build in from the southwest over time as
elevated moisture advects into the area ahead of the next incoming
wave. This should allow temperatures to become quite chilly by
Sunday morning especially in low lying areas of northeast KS where
upper 30s are possible. The chilly start and incoming clouds will
make for quite a cool day on sunday. Have reduced pops on Sunday
during the day as dry air should hold strong and the better lift
seems to delay until Sunday night. By Sunday night the better lift
and moisture will make it into the area with increasing rain chances
through the night and much better chances into Monday. CAPE is
limited through this period and expect thunder to hold off for the
most part although one or two storms are possible.

Little change to the later portions of the forecast period given
incoming severe weather potential this afternoon, but will see
additional chances for rain and perhaps some thunderstorms through
the long term as the slow moving southwest trough makes its way
across the forecast area over a multi-day period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

A line of scattered storms will move through the taf sites. There
is a chance of brief MVFR conditions within the individual storms.
Confidence of a particular storm hitting the site is moderate
therefore have added the tempo group. Large hail and damaging
winds will be possible with these storms. VFR conditions and a
wind shift is expected after the front moves through.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Sanders

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1139 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-141645-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1139 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WILL BETWEEN 1 PM AND
9 PM ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SENECA TO MINNEAPOLIS.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
232 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     HAIL             ROSSVILLE               39.14N 95.95W
05/13/2016  E0.50 INCH       SHAWNEE            KS   PUBLIC

&&

NWS TOPEKA KS
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
242 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

KSZ026-039-040-132015-
JEFFERSON-DOUGLAS-SHAWNEE-
242 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON AND NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 242 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
NORTH TOPEKA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN TOPEKA...OSKALOOSA...TECUMSEH...PERRY...MERIDEN...LECOMPTON...
PERRY LAKE...GRANTVILLE AND WILLIAMSTOWN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 353 AND 355.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 182 AND 190.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3904 9582 3919 9580 3924 9527 3900 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 274DEG 37KT 3911 9571

GDP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

KSZ023-024-132030-
JACKSON-POTTAWATOMIE-
306 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL JACKSON AND
NORTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 306 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES EAST OF WESTMORELAND...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EMMETT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3934 9640 3947 9620 3940 9588 3922 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 285DEG 28KT 3938 9627

SANDERS