Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Topeka, KS

359 
WWUS53 KTOP 050237
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
937 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSC177-050246-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0250.000000T0000Z-161005T0230Z/
SHAWNEE-
937 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SHAWNEE COUNTY
HAS EXPIRED...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3887 9585 3892 9588 3902 9575 3893 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 235DEG 38KT 3892 9583 

$$

BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
844 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

Isentropic lift continues across portions of eastern KS, which has
supported scattered showers and a few storms. This lift may persist
in eastern KS through the afternoon hours. The cold front is
currently moving through central KS and will be the focus for storm
development around 2 to 3 pm. Ml cape should be on the order of 1500
to 2000 j/kg ahead of the front. There is an expansive cloud shield
currently over the area therefore some clearing will be necessary to
increase the instability and weaken the cap. The deep layer shear is
expected to be between 40 to 50 kt. Hodographs show slight curvature
in the lowest levels with the directional shear. A majority of the
models have 0-1 km SRH at least 100 m2/s2. Discrete supercells will
be possible after initialization and a few hours afterwards. Expect
large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes will be threats through
about 7-9 pm. The best locations for these threats will be along and
east of highway 81 and west of a line from Hiawatha to Emporia.
These discrete storms may try to merge or become bowing segments
into the early evening. The 0-3 km shear vector around 30 kt will be
orientated out of the southwest. Any bowing segment that becomes
perpendicular to this vector could be capable of producing
mesovorticies and severe wind gusts. Storm motion are forecasted to
be about 40 kt so there may be quick evolution across eastern KS.
Eastern KS is where the storms should form into a line at which the
wind threat will continue through roughly 9 to 12 pm. The main
concern will be the decrease in instability in far eastern KS and
how elevated the storms become during that time frame. Brief periods
of heavy rainfall will be possible and the area of concern will be
Ottawa through Republic counties where over 2 inches of rain fell
this morning. Otherwise widespread flooding is not expected at this
time. Localized areas of 2 to 3 inches can not be ruled out if any
cells can manage to train.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

By Wednesday evening the surface low will be located in south
central Kansas.  Southerly flow will keep dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60 range, especially in portions of east central Kansas.  Late
evening into overnight a southwest to northeast oriented LLJ is
forecast to increase over eastern Kansas and veer through the night.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight as isentropic
ascent increases over east central Kansas.  A stout cap has been
persistent in models over the past couple days which may inhibit
surface based storms if it does not weaken enough Wednesday night.
CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and strong effective shear of over 40 knots
would indicate severe storms would be possible with any development
with hail being the main threat overnight into the early morning
hours.

By Thursday morning the main trough axis will be just west of the
Rockies, shifting eastward through the afternoon.  Portions of
northeast Kansas will be in the warm sector Thursday afternoon ahead
of the surface front.  Parameters will be favorable for severe
weather including shear up to 40 knots over the area.  For now, it
looks like the main threats will be hail, transisitioning into a wind
threat with any quickly moving storms as the front moves through the
area in the afternoon, exiting by mid-evening.  Lingering
precipitation behind the front should exit the area Friday.

Temperatures will be at their warmest on Thursday before the frontal
passage.  Expect a significant cool down Friday with highs only
reaching into the lower and mid 60s.  Lows on Saturday morning will
also be much more brisk than of late, in the upper 30s and lower
40s.  From here, another slight warm up expected through the end of
the period getting back into the middle 70s by Tuesday.  Weekend
looks to remain dry as high pressure sits over the central US, with
slight chance POPs returning Sunday night to the end of the period.
With models not in very good agreement after the weekend, confidence
in these chances is low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Oct 4 2016

A line of thunderstorms will pass through the KFOE and KTOP
terminals between now and 4Z. Expect wind gusts out of the west
up to 30 MPH and a brief window of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities. After the line the remainder of the night will be
dry. Some patchy fog may develop at the terminals near sunrise and
mix out by 14Z TUE.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Heller
AVIATION...Gargan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
210 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-051915-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
210 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HIAWATHA TO
EMPORIA MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 7 PM. FARTHER EAST THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
659 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     HAIL             5 N MOONLIGHT           39.08N 97.08W
10/04/2016  E0.88 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
714 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N GREEN               39.50N 96.99W
10/04/2016                   CLAY               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FROM 22ND TO 25TH ROAD FROM UTAH TO VALLEY
            VIEW. REPORTS OF DAMAGE TO A FEW STRUCTURES-
            LIKELY AGRICULTURAL BUILDINGS.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
722 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     HAIL             CHAPMAN                 38.98N 97.02W
10/04/2016  E0.75 INCH       DICKINSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
755 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             BURDICK                 38.57N 96.85W
10/04/2016  E1.00 INCH       MORRIS             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

JP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
905 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ038-054-050230-
WABAUNSEE-LYON-
905 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN WABAUNSEE AND NORTH
CENTRAL LYON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

AT 905 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF ALLEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ESKRIDGE AND KEENE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 343 AND 345.

LAT...LON 3876 9635 3910 9596 3909 9595 3881 9595
      3866 9623
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 228DEG 49KT 3876 9622

BARJENBRUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
909 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

KSZ054-050230-
LYON-
909 PM CDT TUE OCT 4 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LYON COUNTY UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

AT 908 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
OLPE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLPE AND HARTFORD.

LAT...LON 3817 9630 3825 9626 3837 9595 3826 9595
      3826 9596 3817 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 228DEG 48KT 3823 9612

SANDERS