Severe Thunderstorm Warning 233, NWS Topeka, KS

742 
WWUS53 KTOP 282251
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
551 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KSC031-111-282301-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0233.000000T0000Z-160828T2300Z/
COFFEY-LYON-
551 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COFFEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN LYON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3817 9596 3817 9605 3831 9608 3832 9583
      3809 9581 3809 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 175DEG 19KT 3816 9594 

$$

27

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

Storms have begun to form within the tropical air mass in place
across the area. The instability is moderate and will support strong
updrafts, also soundings show a moist environment through most of
the vertical profile. This in turn may help to produce a wet
microburst at the surface. Although the deep layer shear is minimal
therefore updrafts will not last long. The storm outflows will then
support further development through the evening. Storm motion is
rather slow and several cells may train over the same locations, and
rainfall rates are efficient. All together could not rule out
localized gusty wind, heavy rainfall, and perhaps small hail. Since
most of this activity will be diurnally driven the coverage should
decrease this evening. Any remaining outflows may keep showers and
storms into the late evening as depicted by high res models. Models
then focus the showers and perhaps storms across north central KS
tonight. The warm air advection appears rather weak, but models are
hinting at a wave tracking over western KS into southern NE. This
activity could linger into tomorrow morning especially given the
potential wave. Some models are forecasting light wind and clear
skies across portions of northeast KS. With recent rainfall some
areas could develop ground fog around sunrise. A similar environment
is forecasted for tomorrow so expect storms developing late morning
and early afternoon. Models do show that wave will possibly deepen
as is tracks over NE, which may contribute to large scale lift
during the day. Moderate instability, weak shear, and high moisture
tomorrow will support storms capable of localized gusty wind and
heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

The weather pattern remains fairly stagnant through Tuesday and
Wednesday with very weak flow and ample moisture aloft with weak
low level forcing in the region each day. The difference will be
that the mid-level vorticity maxima will be closer to the local
forecast area and may help support more than just the diurnally
driven daily convection during this period. Expect several of
these impulses along with occasional MCV structures to provide
this extra vertical motion, and also to enhance local moisture
content and moisture flux into smaller areas. Pwat values will be
typically in the 1.75-2" range, and all of these ingredients along
with the convective nature of the precipitation suggest that
mainly localized areas of heavy rainfall and flooding will be
possible. Could also see periods of training precipitation so can
not rule out a few even smaller areas of very heavy rain totals
through Wednesday night. Temperatures through this time frame will
see a slight cooling trend as there should be more cloud cover in
the area but still expect highs mainly in the 80s.

Thursday a few storms could linger in southwestern parts of the
forecast area, but then expect a dry period through Friday night
as dry high pressure builds in from the northeast. While the
airmass will be cooler and drier, there will also be more of the
August sunshine so highs are likely to maintain in the 80s and
lows in the 60s.

Southerly return flow builds back into the area for next weekend
with additional northern stream disturbances skirting the local
area and eventually forcing another decaying front into the
central Plains. This is cause for a return of thunderstorm chances
along with warmer temperatures and more humidity for much of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

There is a chance for isolated to scattered storms this afternoon,
which may linger into the evening. These storms may produce gusty
wind and brief heavy rainfall causing MVFR conditions. Isolated
storms are possible overnight but confidence in that is low at
this point. Otherwise VFR conditions expected through the taf
period.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sanders
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Sanders

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-292015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ON MONDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT ROUNDS OF STORMS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
219 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KSZ012-281945-
BROWN-
219 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BROWN COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

AT 217 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
EVEREST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HORTON...EVEREST AND WILLIS.

LAT...LON 3965 9534 3965 9554 3972 9554 3983 9534
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 235DEG 4KT 3966 9540

BD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KSZ024-282015-
JACKSON-
238 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM CDT...

AT 238 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHWEST OF POTAWATOMI RESERVATION. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL
JACKSON COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3937 9581 3930 9600 3936 9604 3943 9604
      3948 9590
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 140DEG 2KT 3940 9595

BD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KSZ011-023-024-282015-
JACKSON-NEMAHA-POTTAWATOMIE-
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...SOUTH
CENTRAL NEMAHA AND NORTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

AT 239 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SOLDIER...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOLDIER AND HAVENSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3955 9585 3948 9603 3949 9604 3953 9612
      3958 9612 3966 9594
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 168DEG 13KT 3958 9598

BD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
313 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KSZ011-012-282045-
NEMAHA-BROWN-
313 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BROWN AND EAST
CENTRAL NEMAHA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 312 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SABETHA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SABETHA...FAIRVIEW...ONEIDA AND WOODLAWN.

LAT...LON 3979 9566 3974 9590 3988 9596 3993 9571
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 168DEG 13KT 3985 9581

BD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
433 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

KSZ054-282200-
LYON-
433 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LYON COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 433 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF OLPE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OLPE.

THIS INCLUDES KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 116 AND 123.

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3838 9636 3839 9635 3834 9608
      3817 9608
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 203DEG 18KT 3823 9625

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
516 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             E EMPORIA AIRPORT       38.34N 96.20W
08/28/2016  E1.00 INCH       LYON               KS   OTHER FEDERAL

            A FEW QUARTER SIZE STONES FELL...ASOS AT THE AIRPORT HAD
            GUSTED UP TO 50MPH AT 452PM ALSO.

&&

BDRAKE